I still think it suits vested interests for the SP to stay above 45 cents. I'm wanting to give potential last minute subscribers a look at how I see this. I still see both CPA and IOF as long term buys as they are both discounted.
Some metrics in comparison to CPA, based on current exchange rates (knocks off 6% approx allowing for Eur and USD decrease). Assume IOF fully taken-up.
Code; SP; NTA; NTA basis date; NTA%; EPU; EPU%
IOF; 45c; 75; Dec 08; 167%; 5.3; 11.8%
CPA; 78c; 1.24; Mar 09; 159%; 8.4; 10.8%
Some notes re comparison:
In favour of IOF
- Do we assume that the AUD will fall - 50% of portfolio is in Eur and US.
- Possibly Europe and US can bounce back as commercial markets/economies there have been damaged far more than in Aus.
In favour of CPA
- NTA based on Mar 09 - so IOF would have sufferd since then.
- CPA has done a minor capital raising - diluted by about 16%, but have never been discounted like IOF was, or had any crises. Would you want IOF as a long term hold?
I think with the overhang I'd want IOF at a (say) 20% discount on NTA to CPA (say 10% to allow for revals, 10% for stock overhang - so I'd want IOF with NTA at 191% of SP, so 39 cents per unit approx.
Disclosure - I have a $500 parcel of IOF only as my holding - hardly a holding at all.
I still think it suits vested interests for the SP to stay above...
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