I'll be putting in a bid. The way I view it, downside is likely to be supported by the low NTA premium, so one could reasonably expect that provides a bit of a cap in terms of any potential losses on open - even then, PLG was an abysmal float and that only lost approx 3% on opening day.
The upside however, I would envisage is supported by the diversity of the portfolio (property types, locations, blue chip tenants, as well as varying rental adjustments), modest yield, industry recognition and experience, plus ample room to increase gearing and boost returns. VVR finished 15% higher on its opening day, and yes it may have been scoped differently, but it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect Charter Hall to sit somewhere between the two aforementioned IPOs.
So personally, for what is effectively almost a 1 week investment (if you wait as long as possible to submit your offer), I don't think a single-digit return (~4-6%) would be all that bad. After all, if one had their money tied up in the float a long longer (e.g. cfoam - by the way, is that ever going to arrive?), then I'd be hoping for a stag that was a heck of a lot higher.
Concerns around interest rates and bonds will come and go, tend to agree with the earlier comments that the US is going to continue playing this out cautiously - in a country where it's voluntary to vote, election is still open game at the moment too. In any case, if interest rates start to move, it won't just be the REITs feeling the pinch. True, REITs have been weak the last 1-2 weeks, but it's clear some investors (and funds) will have freed themselves from their positions - good chance they'll have cash at their disposal while this offer is open. Even then, a bit of lead time before it lands on the ASX could allow things to smooth out a bit and allow former REIT investors to support the stock on opening.
