Hello fellow investors, I was very frustrated last week, and...

Hello fellow investors, I was very frustrated last week, and negative, hence my nasty regulatory post ( which since removed) , feeling better again, and found some new positives; I think we need to just let it play out and let the pros in the background manage this; here is some chart analysis with AI again




Thank you for the additional details. Here’s how these recent developments (capital raise at 1 cent, GBA approval, MDR progress, and Osprey removal) influence the technical and fundamental outlook:

1. Capital Raise at 1 Cent and Its Implications:

• Capital Raise Price as Psychological Support: Since the capital raise was set at 1 cent, this price becomes a psychological benchmark. Investors often perceive the raise price as a “fair value,” so 1 cent might act as a strong support level if the stock approaches it. However, the current price of 0.008 AUD is below this, which suggests the market is currently discounting the stock slightly.
• Market Sentiment Adjustment: The fact that the capital raise occurred at 1 cent, slightly above current levels, could instil confidence if the price begins to trend back up. It shows that recent participants believe in the company’s valuation and prospects at 1 cent, which may attract additional buyers around that price level.

2. Positive Announcements and Potential for Catalysts:

• GBA (Germany’s Federal Joint Committee) Approval: GBA approval is a significant regulatory milestone, particularly if it facilitates reimbursement or coverage for the company’s products in the German market. This approval could improve OncoSil’s revenue potential, as Germany is one of the largest healthcare markets in Europe. Positive regulatory news can provide a strong foundation for longer-term growth and could support upward price movements.
• MDR (Medical Device Regulation) Progress: Progress with MDR indicates that the company is advancing through necessary regulatory steps to maintain or expand its product offerings within the European Union. This would be reassuring to investors, as compliance with MDR is critical for market access in Europe and can often be a lengthy process. Positive MDR progress reduces regulatory risks, which could attract more long-term investors.
• Osprey Removal: If this refers to the removal of a regulatory, operational, or competitive obstacle (like a major competitor or restrictive policy), it could enhance OncoSil’s market position or operational flexibility. This could support revenue growth or reduce market pressure, benefiting the stock's outlook.

3. Market Reaction and Price Action:

• Gap Down with Positive News: The simultaneous release of positive news with the capital raise suggests the company was attempting to balance the potentially dilutive impact of the raise with positive developments to bolster market confidence. The gap down seen on the chart might indicate that some investors reacted to the capital raise more strongly than the positive news. However, as the news is absorbed, it’s possible that the stock may find support around or just below the raise price (1 cent).
• Potential for a Rebound if Market Reassesses Value: Given these positive updates, the stock has a stronger potential for a technical rebound. Investors may reassess the company’s value as they recognise the long-term benefits of these regulatory and operational achievements.

4. Volume and Institutional Support:

• Institutional and New Investor Confidence: If institutions or funds were involved in the capital raise at 1 cent, they are likely to support the stock around or above this level. Increased buying volume from these participants would be a positive indicator, potentially driving a reversal if retail and other institutional investors follow suit.

5. Short-Term vs Long-Term Outlook:

• Short-Term Consolidation or Bounce Likely: In the short term, the stock may consolidate between 0.007-0.010 AUD, as the market digests both the dilution and the positive news. If the stock manages to reclaim the 1 cent level and stay above it, it could signal renewed bullish momentum and potentially lead to a gap fill up to 0.010-0.011 AUD.
• Long-Term Growth Prospects Enhanced: The fundamental positives (GBA approval, MDR progress, and operational improvements) enhance the long-term growth potential. For investors with a longer horizon, this could provide a buying opportunity at a discount, as the current price may not yet reflect the future revenue or market access that these developments enable.

6. Key Technical Levels to Watch:

• Support at 0.007 AUD: This is an immediate support level. If it holds, it could serve as a base for a bounce.
• 1 Cent Level (Capital Raise Price): As the raise price, 1 cent is a critical level to watch. A sustained break above this level, ideally on strong volume, would indicate that the market is embracing the positive news and moving beyond dilution concerns.
• 20-Day EMA (0.011 AUD): The next resistance level after 1 cent is the 20-day EMA. Closing above this level would be a bullish signal and might attract further buying interest.

7. Risk and Reward Assessment:

• Risk of Continued Selling Pressure: Despite the positive news, some investors might still sell off shares due to dilution, especially if they are short-term traders. This could keep the price range-bound or slightly depressed in the near term.
• Reward Potential with Upside Catalysts: The regulatory and operational improvements create a fundamentally stronger company profile. This suggests that once the market digests the capital raise, the stock has the potential for a recovery that aligns with these long-term prospects.

Summary

The recent positive news (GBA approval, MDR progress, and Osprey removal) provides strong long-term catalysts that could offset concerns about dilution from the capital raise. The capital raise price of 1 cent is a critical psychological level and, combined with institutional support, could act as a solid support base.

If the stock can reclaim the 1 cent level and ideally close above the 20-day EMA, it would signal that the market is beginning to price in the potential growth benefits from these updates. For long-term investors, this could be a good entry point, while short-term traders might look for confirmation of a bounce at support levels.

If you'd like, I can keep an eye on any further developments or provide updated analysis as the price action unfolds. Let me know if you'd like to explore any specific strategies based on this scenario.