...yeh... one hell of a question to quick Friday off with!!..but...

...yeh... one hell of a question to quick Friday off with!!

..but good timing as I think we're at a point in the next few days where we going to get a good dose of both

1. From a TA perspective - I'm wondering whether we following 2002-03....in terms of price the market indecision is the same area 880-930ish...time wise I have 185 days from the 24/7/02 low to 13/01/03 top (which was the last top prior to the final leg down)...to final low 12/3/03...total days 243...

today will be 189 days from 21/11/08 (now overdue)...and 243 days would make 22/07/09

So we're at a similar time frame as 2003 for a decision to be made up or down

The 13 & 34 weekly ma's should come within a couple of points by the end of next week (calculated using s&p not CMC but looking reasonably similar)

2. From a fundamental point of view - There seems to be some decisions next week regarding GM (haven't read much here) bond holders, debt repayment (?) etc...if it goes down I'm wondering what effect it will have on the US psych...and markets....or whether it will be viewed as some sort of renewal process for onward and upward....or end of great US coy which could lead to pessimism and knock on effects

..and the 22/07/09 date will no doubt (haven't checked) will be right in the heart of bank reporting etc....so another fundamental influence

whose leading who?