I have actually been slightly confused over the past week with...

I have actually been slightly confused over the past week with the share price movements with PAR.

So I decided to go back and see if the charts could show me some pattern to these price fluctuations. Using the 3 Month Daily Chart, with Bollinger Bands, 9 Day SMA, MACD & RSI, there appears to be a clear pattern. The price jumps up quite dramatically on some weeks, hits an Overbought week when it jumps above the top Bollinger Band, has a correction, and then repeats the pattern upwards.

On about the 1st July the Bollinger Bands squeezed together, a sign of a sudden price change, in this case upwards. Confirmed by MACD & RSI moving upwards, and the 9 Day SMA. Then around the 13th July a drop as it was now showing as Overbought via the BBs. Price drifted downwards and was later confirmed around the 24th July by the 9 Day SMA, MACD & RSI.

Then the price drifted sideways until the 28th August with a nice green Candle bouncing of the lower Bollinger Band, again confirmed by the MACD, RSI (rising above the 50 mark), and moving above the 9 Day SMA. But then it gaped up too quickly, an overbought signal dragged it back. Though since the 28th August the price has been nicely following the 9 Day SMA. Then Overbought signals again on the 10th & 24th September. So for the past 3 Months there have been 4 instances of overbought signals that provided price drops, then nice recoveries upwards. This seems to confirm what Soldierofortune mentioned about news coming out and the price drops accordingly. I haven’t checked if these price drops coincided with any news. These price falls were on around the 14th July, 29th August and the 10th and 24th September.

So the 3 Month Weekly Chart is showing me that the RSI is currently upwards, and staying within the 50 to 80 range, the price is following the 9 Day SMA, and the MACD is upwards, (a strong indicator for me). The 5 Day & 10 Day charts are both showing a Bollinger Band squeeze, bouncing of the 7 Day SMA, RSI is up, the MACD appears to be crossing back upwards, so it looks as if the price might be about to head back up.

So I believe Technical Analysis is a valid method of detecting price movements, even with a stock like PAR.

I rest my case!