Daily Positives
Stoch 5 is above its sig line. Sig line rising.
Stoch 14 is above its sig line, sig line is rising.
MACD is above its sig line. Sig line is rising.
Histogram is above zero.
The sp retraced 61% from the high & closed around that mark (depending on where its measured from).
The candle has a relatively long tail and rising volume indicates some support at the current level.
Negatives
The close was at the half way mark of the day’s range.
The volume traded has pretty low for what was a very positive announcement.
Both the stochs have narrowed & may be indicating a period of consolidation and settling into the new range
The gap has partially closed but remains open.
GLN “outside” gaps have a 79% closure rate in 2 – 6 days. That does not alter going out to 30 days so at a guess I would say that if it hasn’t closed in 7 days then it probably won’t unless some unforeseen event occurs.
Weekly.
Positives
The long term trend is up
MACD is rising & above the sig line
Histogram is above zero
Negatives
Stoch 5 is below its sig line & trending down after crossing back below the overbought area
Stoch 14 is below its sig line & trending down after failing to move into the overbought area
The weekly bar / candle is negative looking (long upper wick) & the close was in the lower half of the bar.
Overall the weekly is looking like a period of consolidation or sideways movement coming up.
Outlook.
On the daily.
The low on this pull back has retested the top of the previous range.
Imo it is likely to see that tested again and potentially closing the gap down to 31.5, that would be normal & healthy for the longer term.
There is no evidence atm that there is any selling but there is also no evidence of any strong buying.
Volume was relatively low after the last two announcements & I can’t see the usual profit taking yet by traders after the most recent one.
The market seems unimpressed with the announcement.
It appears then that current holders are prepared to wait for & are expecting more good news or for the sp to bounce after this pull back before selling.
The initial upside target if / when the re-rate continues would be 42. Above that it could get back up to the 45 – 46 area.
All the daily indicators are at the low end of their cycles & have now all turned positive at the same time but are showing signs of slowing momentum
On the weekly, support is 29 – 30 and resistance is around 38.
While there is no denying the updates are great news for holders, GLN is still a spec stock and will remain volatile as traders exit or take positions.
There is a long way to go before any product will be produced or sold so should be a great trading stock as it has regularly recurring swings & follows these quite well.
For long term holders, it will potentially be a great long term investment but there will likely be frustration and stress along the way if buying at the wrong time.
I am not convinced that now is the right time for either long or short term entry.
If the sp breaks and closes below the rising (green) trend line it would potentially retest the high 20 low 30 area.
Support should be solid around 34 – 35 and resistance around 44 – 46.
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