ICQ 0.00% 53.0¢ icar asia limited

Ive been in and around the markets for 20 years and I have to...

  1. 9,820 Posts.
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    Ive been in and around the markets for 20 years and I have to say ICQ stands out as one of the clearest long buy small caps I recall seeing.

    and right now I view as my time to buy. ( I had some but not enough at 75c)

    Despite a price doubling, the stock is now only $160m mkt cap - so only just starting to get into valuation and liquidity levels institutions are allowed to trade in. (most fund managers have internal rules that stop them buying shares below key levels - $50m, $200m and $500m market cap are common hurdle requirements)

    It has approx. 2-3 years cash at current burn rates following the further placement to CRZ the other day - and it has no. 1 market position in 3 high potential, low penetration markets.

    We know the shift to online auto ordering is ubiquitous globally - as internet penetration goes up so does car ecommerce regardless of country - which removes one of the key hindrances to like for like comparisons with carsales - ie cultural differences.

    The one hesitation I had previously was the car trader compensation model and whether that would match up with the online model as well it does in say Australia.

    But most recent announced earnigns suggests that is not a problem.

    And we know expansion for IT business models is relatively capex light - so market capitalisation growth generally comes from earnings rather than share dilution to build new capacity.

    The challenge is target pricing for the SP. Using traditional metrics always fails on IT companies because growth is generally so fast that by the time earnings go positive, the company valuation is sky high.

    The recent run up was associated with Acorn capital moving to a +5% holding - a noted and highly respected small cap specialist fund manager.

    I think we'll see a period of consolidation - which I think people should use it they like this story long term.

    expect a fair degree of volatility - because Acorn wont buy or sell unless it goes very cheap compared to their entry price (ie estimate $1.20) - and everyone else in the stock are small hedge funds, private client broker and SMSF investors. oh - and the algorithm trading systems that are all over this stock like a rash.

    Because when the stock goes again it will be right in the gun sights of the early adopter funds as it moves toward $200m market cap.

    Admittedly that could take several months.

    But when they start buying I would expect share price appreciation to be rapid and you wont see it again.

    There is always the risk of a company cruelling error or setback.

    But that's life when you take company specific stock risk.

    Here my own view is the regard potential is more than sufficient to go overweight.

    DYOR






 
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