FA - not much has changed. Cashed up for drilling. Cash incoming from processing of tailings ST. Partial drill results show promise for Strelley. BOD preference is to sell Tick Hill at this stage due to only having 12 months production = not realising full value of the resource - if the mine will produce 18M FCF over 12 months, then it will not be sold for anywhere near 18M. All talk of qrtly/annual cashflow should be ignored as LOM at this stage is only 12 months. Finding a significant Tick Hill extension should change valuation and potentially lead BOD to develop rather than sell the resource. Au flat, Cu rising.
TA - Daily 6 month chart shows what may be a bearish head and shoulders pattern. Last three days of trading shows what may be a bearish Three Black Crows pattern. The third red down day should ideally be longer but is being supported by the SPP price of 30c. Below 30c I don't see any major areas of SP support on the chart so would be looking for specific psychological price points e.g 27.5c is a common sub 30 retrace point, 25c is the 30M MC valuation that I previously called, an overshoot selloff could see 21c or 18.5c.
Depth - Holders will always focus on the sell depth or lack thereof e.g. At the moment the Buy side is 1.2M and Sell side is 447 K. This implies a 3:1 buyer ratio which would normally be a buy signal for me however on closer inspection 66% of the Buy depth has been made up of ONE buyer who floats an order of 500K-1M shares 50% off the current SP. This "buyers" price has ranged from 27c to 16c over the past month always making sure that the order will never be hit. The only reason for this is to support the Buy line whilst offloading shares. If it was a true buyer trying to catch the dip then his order would still be sitting around 27c. As a holder you must sell to make a profit i.e. buyer depth is the most important. As a buyer, if my price is not met, I simply move on to the next opportunity risk free. For those who are retired and have the benefit of watching the price action during the day, you should have noticed that the Sell volume hasn't changed much i.e. sitting around 600K. Yet the previous couple of days have seen more than twice that volume being traded which shows that there is a lot of off-screen action happening with people selling directly into the buy order.
CR support levels - SPP at 30c and current SP at 30.5c = potentially last opportunity for SPP holders to get out even for that parcel.
Time of Year - CNB has had a good run this year. There will be some people cashing out profits to pay for Xmas holidays/presents etc.
Now here comes the most important form of analysis that people need to understand.
I call it EPTA which stand for Emotional Psychological Teenager Analysis and it works like this. Every ASX stock is backed by an Emotional Psychologically underdeveloped Teenager.
Male Teenager - From Jul to Oct we had the male teenager phase. Some girl sent him a note that he construed as her being keen on him. He went home and proceeded to whack off over it for 4 months telling all his mates how he is going to score with this chick (i.e. CNB will be another DEG), all the while blowing his load all over his own chest 5 times a day whilst never even having said hello to the chick.
Female Teenager - From Oct to Dec (and beyond). Female teenager said she was keen on male teenager however she hasn't received a call/note back (lab delays) and only got one rose on valentine's day instead of a dozen (AC 1m @ 0.4g/t vs 40m @ 4g/t). Due to delay/lack of communication/inflated hopes, she now has the schitts with the male teenager and has thrown the mother of all tantrums. She's now refusing to talk to him until a dozen roses show up, and out of spite, is dumping all his schitt out the window (shares). She is a fickle beast and her attitude can turn at the sight of something shiny.
My sentiment - I blew my load in the 50s and 40s and am now getting ready to pick up my belongings in the 20s. Hopefully I can find something shiny in a month or two. CNB has great LT potential but ST pain is ahead with Xmas and lab delays.
LTs - Good luck riding out the bumps ST-MT - Hopefully with pick this right.
CNB Price at posting:
30.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)