Charts / Macro

we are at a very interesting point on the SPX to gold ratio at the moment
hard to say with much certainty how we are matching up to the left shoulder, its possible we are on the cusp of a break down, or its possible we have another bounce to go similar to the point marked with a blue arrow on the left shoulder




XAUUSD weekly .. we have a negative divergence with the RSI
and in the last few days the big drop in the DXY hasnt ben matched by as big a rise as i'd expect in gold.. suggesting its a bit weak at the moment


XAUUSD daily.. likewise the RSI had a negative divergence.. you can argue that it corrected from that or that the correction is incomplete
the last 2 days look to be hitting resistance and forming a lower high

IMO a break above 2950 and the correction is over, but it does feel like its possibly not quite ready to do that just yet


SPX/XJO ratio a proxy for capital rotation out of the US into our market
its not rolled over yet, both quarterly or montly candlesticks show indescision. small body long upper and lower wicks


it appears to me the powers that be are now going to spin the narrative of recession in the US to lower debt yields to facilitate the rollover of significant quantities of maturing debt... hard to say where that will drive capital.. if US yields fall (more than other countries) that would make DXY fall.. so why would you buy their debt.. but obviously the goal is to whip up enough fear to get people to do just that.
Also if they do manage to do that.. wont it be at best a dead cat bounce for US debt and allowed to fall once the debt has been rolled over.. in otherwords they are looking for suckers to be left holding the turd in a box.. and it sets us up for the next wave of capital into commodities and out of US markets.. maybe the insiders wont go too hard on front running the commodities so as not to sppok the greater fools out of buying US debt.. that being said copper is already doing pretty well lately.

I think my best guess is a dead cat bounce in the DXY and US debt, a headwind for gold running to new highs.. but if the rest of the world doesnt drop interest rates.. then that idea is in the bin.. all these central banksters seem to collude pretty tightly though.. i think they will all oblige to weaken their currencies to allow the US debt to be rolled over cheaper.