Charts & TA, page-253

How big is the target – and does it really fit NST?

	Snapshot (June 2025)	Minerals 260 (MI6)	Northern Star (NST)
1	Market cap	≈ A$240 m @ A$0.12/sh	≈ A$24 bn
2	Flagship asset	100 % Bullabulling, 2.3 Moz Au (JORC 2012) near Coolgardie	KCGM “Super‑Pit”, Yandal, Pogo (USA) + newly acquired Hemi (via De Grey)
3	Corporate goal	Build a standalone CIL plant and become a mid‑tier producer	“Fill & feed” strategy: extend KCGM’s life, add >10 Moz in WA

1 – Who controls the scrip today?

	Holder (Top‑20, Apr 2025)	% issued capital
1	HSBC, JPM & Citi nominee lines (institutional custodians)	42 %
2	Tim Goyder (Executive Chair)	6.1 %
3	Norton Gold Fields (Zijin)	3.9 %
4	Other top‑20 + free‑float	48 %

2 – What would have to happen before NST moves?

	Stage	Catalyst	Earliest timing	Relevance to NST
1	Resource growth	80 000 m drill program + Dec 2025 MRE update	Q4 2025	NST usually buys at >3–4 Moz for +10 yr life
2	Metallurgy & scoping	Phase‑1 met + open‑pit shells at A$5 000–A$6 000/oz	H1 2026	Confirms CIL compatibility with KCGM circuits
3	PFS / Permit pathway	Early works, tailings approval, haul‑road options	2026‑27	The later MI6 de‑risks, the higher the price – NST may pre‑empt
4	NST balance‑sheet digestion	De Grey integration, KCGM mill expansion	2025‑26	12–18 mths bedding‑down; a sub‑A$1 bn bolt‑on is still doable
5	Stake‑building window	NST begins 5 %+ on‑market purchases	Any time after strong drill hits	Earliest visible sign; price would re‑rate

3 – Probability matrix (qualitative)

	Horizon	Key gating factor	Likelihood of bid	Comment
1	0–12 mths (→ Jun 26)	Resource <3 Moz; NST digesting De Grey	~15 % (Low)	Attractive price but sparse data; MI6 board focused on self‑build
2	12–24 mths (→ Jun 27)	>3.5 Moz MRE; initial scoping done	25–35 % (Moderate)	Classic window for friendly scheme once de‑risked
3	2–5 yrs (→ 2030)	DFS complete or MI6 project financing	45–60 % (Med‑High)	If gold >A$5 000/oz persists, selling to NST logical

4 – Wildcards that raise / lower the odds

	Upside to a takeover	Downside / defence tools
1	• Bullabulling lifts to >5 Moz or >1.4 g/t, boosting NPV above A$1 bn	• Goyder factor – experienced builder; could resist a lowball offer
2	• WA haul‑road & permitting easier than Pilbara builds	• Norton (Zijin) 3.9 % stake complicates all‑scrip deal
3	• Gold price >A$6 000/oz stretches KCGM mill faster	• MI6 secures project finance or toll‑milling MoU elsewhere

Bottom line

• Near‑term (≤ 12 mths): A raid is possible but unlikely – NST is busy bedding‑in Hemi and KCGM expansion; MI6 still proving ounces.
• Medium‑term (2026‑27): A ≥ 3.5 Moz upgrade and positive scoping would make a friendly scheme at ~A$0.30–0.35/sh logical (<A$800 m outlay).
• Longer‑term (post‑DFS): If MI6 faces ~A$500 m capex, selling to a cashed‑up producer becomes the path of least resistance.

Estimated probability of an NST bid succeeding by 2027: ~30 %.

Probability by 2030 if MI6 remains independent: ~50 %+.

Watch for: substantial‑holder notices >5 %, standout drill intercepts above 2 g/t, or any MI6‑NST “infrastructure cooperation” announcement.