charts - week of 27 sept, page-8

The Quest for the perfect mechanical trading System"
(Version 32,694 LOL)

Hi all, things are a bit slow here today so thought I might try something a bit different. PRT has this nifty Backtest function where you can program in a trading methodology & it will spit out the results for you.

Some of you might remember the MA thread we did the other week where I was keen to look at MA Xes and the like as a foundation for trading decisions with some pretty startling results.

Enough waffle, bottom line is I have played with 5 & 13 EMA crosses for a while & to be blunt when I checked results for a couple of shares the "reality" is that "it ain't working mate". Too much whipsawing ... especially in trending markets like we have had for last 6 months � I think subconsciously I had �cheated� and ignored some of these mini swings in previous manual calcs; sigh!.

then I opened a chart of llc this arvo and to my eye price appeared to behave itself in long definable trends either above or below 41 ema ... ahhh I thought ... lots of 10-15% trends there for the taking.

Put in the program based on entering longs when 41ema turns up; exit when flat or down & reverse for short.

See the results below with a cuppla notes for those not familiar with layout. Bottom line is process turned $10,000 into $6,800 in more than a hundred trades over 5 years.

Back to the drawing board. LOL

PS1; As I think I concluded in that MA thread just have to have a system that is �smarter� than this simple method; eg maybe could consider a minimum slope on the 41 ema as a trigger.

PS2: Not sure if anyone is interested in this analysis?? If anyone has a combo that they think is �the real thing� let me know & I will do a visual & if it �looks good� I will plug it in!

GJ