Exactly,
The whole space is riddled with Fake news, akin to the Bitcoin mania... Good to see
@chris1983 contribute some meaningful analysis...
I dont know why people shun open discourse... And then tell you to "jump on board", or that "you missed the boat", just because the SP rallies off the back of mums and pops/unsophisticated buying hand over fist, thanks to new shareholder groups - mostly notorious for pump and dumps in general.
I only come on here to talk about the space, as I've seed invested a few within this space... I do not get in at the IPO level and am not interested in trading off spec and hype... I simply come to give my tuppence worth - which some loath, and some value... I am not saying you cant make money trading this stock... I am simply talking about the fundamentals of this company... and for those thinking im taking a hit at Z1p, I did heavily scrutinise APT in its intial infancy, as I believe its credit quality is being compromised heavily, at the sake of growth...however due to their insane growth, its an issue that will only show its face when that tapers off, or we face a down turn.. One could say I missed out on it, but I have got into many at seed, so you win some and lose others...
What I would say about Z1p, is that drawing comparison to APT is futile for the following reasons:
Z1p is a lattitude/Flexi or Credit card alternative at the lower end of the credit spectrum, meaning it requires nearly 10x the credit support to hit the same volumes, so are you said the ROE on Z1p is literally 1/10th of APT.
This is a conversation around Return on Equity and TAM - Total Addressable market.
When Z1p finally gets to $2bn in Transactions, its book will be close to $1bn, requiring circa $100m of credit support, however, at this point, the business will be barely breaking even, so the ROE at this point off $100m of credit enhancement, and far more that has been sunk into the business is effectively zero.
At scale, it could normalise to 3%, like Flexi did or GE... hence, these books tend to trade at a 9-11 pe at maturity.
APT, (As would Sezzle and the host of other APT clones that are going to IPO here within 6 months - atleast 2 more) only required about $150m book, or $10-15m in credit support to hit $2bn in volume, circa a year back, and did a $33m Ebitda off said book ( I know npbt was negative) ... so thats a EBITDA to Equity of 3:1 ... thats enormous... At a $1bn Book, APT would be doing $12-15bn odd in volume ... so its 7-10x more efficient on that metric alone... however, it would also be making hundreds of millions in ebitda, assuming the book doesnt deteriorate - which it well could.
To re hash, APT is really a short payments into term lay-buy play, which offloads its risk in 45 days... Z1p as
@street talk mentioned has a average debtor age of 7 months... Furthermore, Increase in revenue we are seeing now, is due to interest expense increasing, meaning the book turn is slowing further, as Transaction volume was down for this quarter ( which is normal, as Xmas period is peak)...
Then we get to TAM... Now APT is going gangbusters in the US, and now the UK, overtaking companies like Affirm ( which are Z1p-esque in their offering), as the favourite payment/finance option... It has won a land grab by being first, however, as you can see there are now lots of Me-toos, who are also growing rapidly - and suprise suprise may will list here due to the buoyancy of the BNPL space.
Z1ps Tam, if we are serious is really maybe Asia Pac... their model, as Klarna has shown is not as easy to virally spread across border as an APT, and requires an insanely large balance at that, to make it work... Also, they've kind of missed the boat going offshore, as Affirm, Klarna, Bread, Acima etc have already got there... So this SP really prices in probably 150% of the addressable upside in Australia and NZ alone... Consider what a FXL was trading at, at its peak, circa $80m NPBT, this business has already surpassed that in cap.
The company is currently literally trading at 15-17x FY19 pro forma LTM revenue... Thats seriously high, considering APT, which will probably run rate $300m, at a $6bn cap is run rating 20x, with 7x the efficiency, 3-5x the growth rate, and like 20x the TAM, if we consider the Aussie market is 22m people, while USA, Aus, UK is circa 400m+ people... They are both extremely valuing upside, but anyone who thinks Z1p is the cheap option, should really do the numbers...
(20min delay)