So we have a pretty significant event in the context of overall market conditions.
24 months ago the weekly closing high was reached, the week of the rally high of $4.27, at $3.98.
Yes it was the week starting 18th Jan 2021 and closed Friday 22nd at $3.95 which see some expecting or fearing the next weeks trading that saw a fall to $2.80 and subsequent decline to $1.56 in June 2021.
Yesterday was a new all time weekly closing high that would also have been an all time daily closing high but for a monster effort after close to bring it back under the 20th Jan 2021 daily closing high of $4.11.
Does that 2021 fate await us now. Going by the indicators there are some significant differences.
First the volume. Volume on this rally has been much lower and from others comments it appears pro's and bots are looking to draw out supply. This has largely been unsuccessful at higher and higher price points. The increasing volume yesterday at higher price points shows strength of trend with red bars on the daily being markedly lower volume than green bars. Big volume though has not even close to kicked in yet.
Second the Money Flow Indicator (MFI). On the 2 previous rallies above $4 you can clearly see the steepness of the MFI with it almost going vertical on the first rally showing just a tad of exuberance.
This time however the MFI has shown a far more measured rise showing more maturity and sustainability IMO.
Thirdly the MACD. This one shows little discernible difference over the 3 rallies but the first rally is more in alignment due the wider gap between the red and green lines both are showing. This is statistically significant as the first rally .30c to $4.27 was a rise of 1400% whereas the second $1.56 to $4.50 was just shy of 200%. So do I expect a 1400% rally to $28, well no but I do expect it to be stronger than the 2nd rally to $4.50. A greater than 200% rally from the bottom which was actually $1.92 in June 22 puts the price at around my target of 5.80 to $6.50 coinciding with the middle up trend line. If we get the Darling of the ASX fomo rally as per my NVX/BRN research then a 700% gain takes us to circa $13.40 which is not far from the 6.45X gain mentioned there to $12.90 which is just over $2Billion MCap. Only putting it out there as what may happen so holders are prepared and may decide to hold on to some if deciding to take profits.
This momentum we are seeing in the middle of the biggest upheaval in markets since the GFC speaks volumes. Hopefully I won't have egg on my face end of next week and the month end. A new daily and monthly high beckons but this is the market and it ain't for the faint hearted.
Staying in the old trend channels that it has broken into,both short and long term is important for this rally to continue IMO.
My insights are provided for educational and understanding purposes only.
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and if gets noticed, then gets going, then gets an ann tossed into it forget all that and agree....pick a MC - 1 bill 2 bill 3 bill ... imo of course.
(20min delay)