Charts, page-3670

Marking up my charts and figured I'd share some notes.
I was early on my initial top into consolidation call so have adjusted some things on the lower time frame. I have a couple of trade positions so I'll focus on a more granular level briefly.
A handful of signals in both directions make it difficult to make an exact call - price has fallen out of a narrow trading range and is doing all the things prior to a more protracted move down. I think a somewhat feeble rally will take shape as a few intersecting areas of confluence are supporting price very specifically (the VWAP and 8day ema is called out below). Price also likes to return to a band of 'fair value', which is inside of trading ranges. The range was sloping upwards so I wouldn't be surprised to see an attempt to get back in there. A rush of supply pushing it out is a bearish signal.

I anticipate $7 mark may put up a fight due to being a round number even though it was traded through quickly. This is more of a psychological barrier for some.

The real area of defense will be around the breakout VWAP



A bearish engulfing candle on decent volume is worth noting, but more significant is the earlier hangman candle. I realise the index re-balance is likely behind this and the shares were likely traded from one hand to the other, but in terms of candle stick patterns it is somewhat of a bearish signal.

I do suspect that the large volume hangman area could act as a ballast for price if the shares did end up in the hands of an index tracking fund or two. Good reason to suspect these shares could be lent out for shorting due to the absence of revenue?




Weekley this chart is ok in my view. Strong Relative Strength against a gross market, support from 30week ema, nice breakout from a base.
The current candle on such large volume is concerning however and does give a point to a bearish thesis.
These breakouts often come back to the 30 week at some point and subsequently rocket up.




NASDAQ futures at an inflection point and showing some weak signs of support. Have to wait and see.



MMTH - percent of stocks above 200ma - shows the general strength of the rally sep 22 rally.
Markets deff want to go up and are looking for any reason and perhaps the last shake out of optimism needs to happen before the real bull market happens. Global politics aren't helping with the US frothing for a war and upping the rhetoric every week. It's hard to be bullish and easy to be bearish in that sense.