Way too early to break out the champagne, but this is looking...

Way too early to break out the champagne, but this is looking positive. On the hourly, we got to 321.5, which is close enough to my 318.6 target. It gave us a nice reversing hammer candle on that and has just broken the declining wedge. That wedge gives a target of around 406 (blue line) based on my original predicted break out point. It looks like it is breaking out a little before that so the target will be a little higher if it stays above the trend line. The first turn should be circa 378, which seems a little high. On the first turn it should back test the top trend line (teal), which is why that turn target seems high, so I'd discount that and look for a turn much sooner. The back test should not break the line, but the way the chart is set up ATM, a delayed backtest will take it below the C point, which it also can't do if it has bottomed, so we are looking for a back test sometime in the next 3 hours I think, or it is unlikely to backtest should not exceed 78% of the rise from 321 at the point of the turn.



Turning to the 1 min chart, We can see that a back test has in fact already happened and it ran to 78% of the rise - which is perfect. This subwave pattern gives a first target of 363.1, and a 5th subwave target of between 373 and 384. I'm not happy with the retrace at the end of that, as it doesn't look deep enough to me, but any deeper it will break the support channel. I think it best to reserve judgement on that until we see how the cycle plays out. On this pattern, it looks like it will need 2 5 wave cycles to hit the hourly target of 406, which might explain the shallow retrace, and in which case the retrace might be even shallower than drawn.



Once again, however, I emphasise that until it hits the subwave 3 target, we can not be confident of the pattern. Still it looks quite promising ATM. As of now it it forming a double top, so it is essential that it rises higher sooner than later or this will become a correction wave rather than in impulse wave and we will probably be in for further retracement. Time to cross fingers and pray to the market gods if long, and incantate and curse if short.

oh - and timing is guess work.