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GAZBO1976

357 Posts.

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18/04/24

16:01

Post #: 73410530
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Originally posted by Darkstone: ↑

Clearly this did not go to plan:

And the pattern has been voided now, so we will have to wait for a new pattern to establish. No signal for now. It needs to stay about this level. Next support circa 278. Much below that and it ends up in the 3 year wave pattern where this is a wave 2 and the end target (78% fib) is circa 207, which would seem a little unlikely as those wave timelines are multi year and one would expect some kind of a signing before then. In any case, it is currently at the 61% fib on that pattern which is a perfectly healthy turning point for a wave 2. On the plus side the wave 3 in that cycle is truly massive, so for long-termers there is that. More likely, me thinks, is that it fluffs around about here for a bit and then starts a new rising price pattern, which will be wave 1 of the next cycle, and wave 3 of the multi-year supercycle, but at this point that is just a total guess as nothing is indicated in any direction that I can see, other than that somewhere between here and 207 it should start to rise again - barring some blackswan event (moreso than has just happened).

I am not across what WBT is doing currently re-fab sizes, but it would seem off-hand that as time goes on they would want to be proving their tech on progressively smaller fabs than they have currently had it certified at. That would seem to be desirable the longer it takes to get licensees signed. There are other strategies they could be adopting, but in the current market, with the current economic macro's in play with the current geo-political pressures, time does not appear to be on their side and a shift in strategy would seem to be indicated. This chart is now at a reasonable dangerous pivot point, regardless of the fundamental prospective worth of the tech. Something has to drive it up from here.

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Thanks for that Darkstone
id say smaller geometries are well under way .

fair to say 22nm is well into the qualification requirments at GF .
14 & 12 when announced in due course will surprise some too .
(Nb the tech is qualified at 130nm ( not 150) in regards to your post on another thread.)

Last edited by GAZBO1976: 18/04/24

WBT Price at posting: $3.05 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
13 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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