that a fact or a feeling though? I've seen wayward predictions...

that a fact or a feeling though? I've seen wayward predictions based on feelings for years with wbt. Given the fact you could park your money in a stock that is appreciating with a clear trend, why would anyone be holding wbt right now? feels bad to sell at a loss? fear that once they exit the price is gonna rocket? stubbornly holding for some other belligerent reason?

Regardless, the price is the price. I can't imagine informed hands were hanging on Cobys every word or emailing him to renew their conviction with every fluctuation. The same entities are firmly in control now as they were then and move stock around so as to be as efficient as possible with what they have to work with - the uninformed money.



If you follow the volume against each thrust down you'll see, in my view, that the trend is softening. Each thrust down is losing strength - effort vs result - big effort (vol) is yielding less impactful results (price moves). This is a sign of absorption. Lower time frames again and you see the EOD close is more often a decent green candle.

The percentage of shares held short has been trending down for some 4 months.

My view is the large decline attracted a load of late comer shorts (speculative uninformed money) to an obvious trade. As is the case when a stock has had a good run up and everyone who wanted to be long is long, the same goes for the down side. Eventually you run out of buyers or sellers in the dominate trend and the other side is attracted back in. Stocks never move in straight lines for long no matter what the fundamentals.



If ADX is accepted and used as a means of measuring trend direction and strength, then last week was the strongest declining week in 4 years. From here we now monitor the coming weeks to determine a change in character (or continuation). Generally it peaks and is followed by a relief counter rally. ADXellence is a good enough book on the topic for anyone interested.



Anyway there are signs that the prudent speculator would note as worth keeping an eye on for a coming change in character. There is certainly a long way to go, namely that 30week ema (blue line on my chart) really needs to be taken back before bullish excitement is worth entertaining. In the mean time a decent base should form with some worthwhile volatility to trade and churn through some of the existing holders (i.e. pent up psychology that needs to be refreshed with renewed enthusiasm).

Just my 2c