I think it's got more to do with the emphatic statement by the PM yesterday, to the effect that borders will be opening up after we reach 70-80% vaccination. I know it's not up to him, it's up to each state, but I think Morrison set the tone of where we want to be and how to get there. Both are now within reach and it seems we're on track for end of November.
To my thinking, this is the kind of "certainty" that produces share price gains for WEB, as much as lockdowns and the hint of new strains causes share price drops. Much more so than chart patterns and the market performance of overseas companies.
Of course a statement of intent is not a golden ticket. I see it more like the poster of an artist's impression that you see outside a building site. Lots of hurdles to overcome first: new strains, new outbreaks, state border closures, vaccine hesitancy, reports of side effects, etc. But this is the first firm statement of intent, backed up by a viable plan, that I remember hearing.
The main, positive thing is that the conversation among leaders, doctors and the public has shifted, and Australians are now more accepting of the idea of living with Covid – which is the nicer way of saying getting used to more cases, more hospitalisations, more deaths. That wasn't an option a few months ago when we were fixated on zero. Now it is. That's good news for travel companies. Although let's stay realistic – this has a long way to go and there will be setbacks for WEB. But I think that was the reason behind yesterday's and today's lift.
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