This "incredibly cheap" thing is only valid if your assumptions are correct. For example, 25x FY20 PE assumes they are going to beat consensus. My estimate is they are going to fall well short of the consensus NZD $1.67b. Remember that consensus is already bullish with its figure and you think they are going to handsomely beat that. Also, 30% 3-year forward EPS CAGR is in fantasy land, IMO.
How often does a stock look "cheap" only for the company to come out with a downgrade or for results that fall short of consensus? A stock typically falls for a reason. I think you can throw out FY20 consensus forecasts and beyond. It's re-rating based on what is likely going to be lower revenue and earnings than what the street is forecasting. Which I think is completely justifiable.
Also, I gotta laugh at the post the other day that said it's rare it's only the second time insiders haven't sold after a financial result and that this was a good thing.. Well the share price dropped like a stone after the FY result and didn't recover, so it wasn't exactly a good opportunity for insiders to sell. Also, IMO, Jayne was pretty much forced not into selling her next tranche of shares. If she wants to survive past this FY, she made a wise move. How would it look if she sold the rest of her shares and then came out with a dud FY result? Her head would be on the chopping block.. Just like McBain at BAL a few years ago.. "Hey guys, I sold out all my shares and no longer have any alignment with shareholders. Stiff titties to holders. Regards, Jayne."
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