Mate your guess is as good as any unless you have inside info? How can you reasonably anticipate actual earnings growth when the company itself has provided very little guidance other than "similar ebitda margin".
If you are so confident in your estimates, can you provide some actual sources? Do you work for woolies/coles and see the actual sales through the shelves? Are you part of the Daigou channel and seen first hand the volume thats been coming through? Maybe you're also doing road trips around the USA looking at how well stocked the A2 milk is there? Have you been to the UK and seen the decommissioning of the products to the UK and been able to work out the expenses surrounding that? Have you been going around the world looking at billboards and getting quotes to work out an average marketing spend? Have you been surfing through every Chinese tv channel to see other marketing campaigns?
Must have been a busy 4 months for you to have done so much more research than every other analyst in Australia.
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