Checkmate - Part IV by Ross C. Leiber Sep 01, '04 / 15 Elul 5764
[The first, second and third parts of this article can be read at http://www.israelnationalnews.com/article.php3?id=4115, http://www.israelnationalnews.com/article.php3?id=4121 and http://www.israelnationalnews.com/article.php3?id=4126.]
[This article is dedicated to all Jews killed, maimed, harmed, harassed and persecuted over the last 2,000 years. The reader may consider playing Antonin Dvorak's Symphony #9, "From the New World", while going through the document.]]
Fourth Movement: Allegro con fuoco
Checkmate
The Arabs at present have Israel trapped in a number of fronts. Pressure to eliminate her nuclear and other weapons, to concede land and parts of Jerusalem, to return the "refugees" - these all move in tandem, or one by one, but the important factor is that these take away not only the country's legitimacy, but also its raison d'etre. They can win on all these fronts over time. What should Israel negotiate under these circumstances? A slower demise? What should the Arabs negotiate? Their victory?
Israel is almost on her own. Humane transfer is the best she can offer to the world, in order that she can stay alive and exist, and this is a lot more than the hand she's been dealt. One can't be 100% moral unless one is dead.
If something spectacular and catastrophic is coming, then Israel had better be the one to do it. The timing and the opportunity are almost perfect. There is no USSR, the Arab states are in relative disarray, US troops are already in the area (Iraq), and terrorists are fighting against the West. Why wait until the enemy gets some serious WMDs? Let Israel save the world and be blamed for it. If she does nothing, she will be blamed, anyway.
In order to save Israel, her most powerful enemy must cease to exist in its current form. That's Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia must be transformed, not necessarily democratized. And Saudi Arabia is weak now. In his own way, Bin Laden is right. Israel and Bin Laden have their own reasons for destroying the Saudi monarchy. It seems bizarre.
"Checkmate" will not lead to warm Arab-Jewish relationships, but at the same time, it requires little cooperation by the world.
"Checkmate" must be initiated in total surprise, without warning anyone, principally the US, of course. Variations on the concept are possible. The strategic planners in Israel can come up with changes. It is better than using WMDs and fewer people will die than if the present situation continues and leads to disaster.
"Checkmate" is a blueprint.
The first step is for the Israeli Air Force to attack and destroy the holy mosque in Medina. It is the closest to Israel, and not as important as Mecca's. Destroy the mosque using conventional weapons. Don't touch the city. Don't touch the people. Do it at first light, because Israel may need as many hours of daylight as possible, on that day. Do not do it during a Muslim holy day. Acting very early in the morning ensures fewer casualties. It also ensures the Western leaders will be disturbed from their precious sleep to "handle" the crisis. She should also destroy a Saudi oil rig - only one - as a message to the world.
At the same moment, have the IDF destroy the two mosques on the Temple Mount. Once again, almost nobody needs to get hurt. If possible, set up a close circuit to Ramallah, so that Yasser Arafat can watch it without knowing what it is all about. Then within one minute or two, kill him. It is better this way. Arresting and putting him on trial is likely to lead to many deaths or kidnappings of Jews in Israel, and attacks against Israeli interests abroad, in order to free him. On the other hand, it might not.
Why attack both Medina and the Temple Mount? Why not only one? Because if Israel destroys only the Jerusalem mosques, the Muslim reaction will be one of rage. While if Israel destroys only the Medina mosque, the Muslim reaction will be one of fear. Israel needs both feelings to be present - rage and fear.
At this point, planned military and political preparations will be put into action. It would be desirable to have the fence completed, but it is not strictly necessary. There will be no million martyrs on the way to Jerusalem. Not even one hundred. When dealing with Arabs, fear is the greatest psychological inducement to compliance.
Israel must at once release prepared warnings, both publicly and in private, to all Muslim countries in the world, as well as to the US, EU and UN, detailing why she was forced to take this course of action, accompanied by a series of non-negotiable demands. For example, she will announce that: "You Muslims still have your most important religious site, Mecca. We Jews only have Jerusalem. Please think about it, think very hard about it."
Israel will tell the governments of Pakistan and the US that if the former launches a nuclear bomb in retaliation, both Mecca and Pakistan will be destroyed. It will announce a similar message to all Arab countries and Iran. Any non-conventional attack against her will lead to the destruction of Mecca and the offending nation(s). She will announce that in case of a retaliatory conventional attack or war, she will reserve the right to destroy Mecca and the offending nations by any methods of her choosing, should her defeat look likely. She will include Mecca, always Mecca, in all her communiqués. She will hint that no oil fields are safe, if Israel isn't safe. This will ensure no NATO country will be foolish enough to try something "heroic".
Israel must put the country on a state of alert, and have her forces in position to control both Palestinian Arabs and Israeli Arabs. There will be protests, but mostly are likely to be manageable, given the magnitude of what she has done and what she is threatening to do. Surprise, determination and troops on the streets are needed. At this point, meaning right away, she should fully engage the US to reinforce her messages. The US will strongly disapprove, but pragmatism will prevail, as it normally does. The oil is important. There will be clashes with Hizballah and Palestinian terrorist groups, but once again, Israel has the advantage of surprise. And yes, there may be a regional war, but it will be easier for her to win than under the regular "Transfer" proposals, since now she has the control, the momentum and the initiative.
Israel will also issue the same kind of warnings to terrorist organizations trying to smuggle WMDs. If any is used, Mecca goes, and maybe a few Arab countries, as well. It is as simple as that. The intention is to have Muslims policing Muslims in order to save Islam. For a very long time.
Israel can now specify her terms. It will involve the organized transfer of as many Palestinian and Israeli Arabs as she deems necessary to regain control of her land, including the Golan, Gaza, the West Bank, and Jerusalem. It is a decision to be made in advance, of course. The fence will be moved to the Jordan River.
Israel may also want to have a say where the Palestinians go - to Jordan, Egypt, Syria and maybe even to Saudi Arabia. Now is the time for the world community to get involved and facilitate the task. And to convince the Arabs that they'd better cooperate. Let the British, who helped create the original problem, discuss with King Abdallah of Jordan whether the Palestinians moving in should be integrated or given an independent country. Distance-wise this will be the shortest and the most humane human migration in history.
On an ongoing basis, Israel will determine the threat level to Mecca and to the oil fields according to the danger of attack either by sovereign nations, or terrorist suicide bombings. There won't be a lot of diplomatic relations between Israel and the Muslim world for a long time to come. Issues like saving the Dead Sea will need to be mediated by the US, who will be looking for a constructive role to play. It may be better to all concerned. Mecca will exist only as long as Israel exists and is safe. It goes without saying that Israel will announce that should a future war against her be launched, and any enemy territory conquered by her, it will then be annexed in perpetuity. No peace treaties, and no "hudnas".
Time has always been on the side of the Arabs. Furthermore, the last few years have shown that from a strategic perspective any unforeseen action by Israeli leaders has been towards surrendering. That's why "Checkmate" has the additional benefit of removing the time advantage against Israel. After "Checkmate", time is on nobody's side, anymore.
Judaism survived 2,000 years without a home, and without Jerusalem and a temple on the Temple Mount. How long can Islam survive without Mecca? Why find out?
Is the world really interested in whether Israel is a light unto the nations? Can this concept be put on hold for a few generations in return for Israel continuing to exist? After all, there are corrupt Jewish politicians in Israel, organized crime, common thieves, family abuse, just like anywhere else. The US nuked two cities in Japan, at the end of World War II, alleging that it was saving the lives of a million of its soldiers. It killed hundreds of thousands, with more fatal consequences over several generations. Rightly or wrongly, the US at that stage was under no existential threat. Compare the two situations and decide if "Checkmate" is not preferable to WMDs launched by either side out of hate or desperation.
The US can be very predictable. That's the country that led a coalition in1991 to liberate Kuwait, while all the royal family ran away, living in luxury, and attending parties abroad. Then the US brought the same royal family back, and nothing changed. Actually, besides expelling 300,000 Palestinian workers, the government declared 300,000 Kuwaiti nomads as non-Kuwaitis, even though they had been in Kuwait for generations. They were fired from their jobs, their children forbidden from attending schools, and now live in settlements, some surrounded by leftover Iraqi mines. Checkpoints ensure these poor souls can't reach Kuwait City (information taken from Price of Honor, by Jan Goodwin). Another "good" deed from a Muslim state going unrecognized by the world. Meanwhile, Israel is called racist. That's why "Checkmate" can't be shared with anyone in advance. "Checkmate" is designed to bring some normalcy to the world, to save Israel, to solve the Palestinian issue, and have those human beings find a better life. That's what the world will be engaged in, while having more control over the oil fields.
All future Arab leaders will understand that they could be targeted in case of a war. How many brave Arab leaders are there? Is there one who has led his men into battle, instead of sending others to their deaths, or cheering terrorists and suicide bombers? No, and why not? Because these are dynasties, whether monarchies or dictatorships. These are families determined to enjoy their control and wealth, not to die, not to lose power or money. And that's why nothing will happen to Israel.
Expected Consequences
The Saudi monarchy won't last a week. The king of Saudi Arabia calls himself the custodian of the two holy sites. Since one is gone, and the other is in peril, he would have failed in his task. The regime will be quickly overthrown, probably by the military. Should a religious person or even Bin Laden himself take power, nothing changes as far as Israel is concerned. Her conditions are clear. But Bin Laden is not likely to prevail, either. With the Saudi monarchy gone, it is more likely the country will have a US-backed Musharraf-type leader, or split along tribal lines. For Israel, that's immaterial; peace with Saudi Arabia is not important. There will be other governments overthrown in the Persian Gulf, and, hopefully, in the countries neighboring Israel. This time, the world may show some muscle and make sure the old dictators are gone. It will be in the interests of the international community to protect Israel.
Of course, the US will have to move its troops from Iraq towns to protect the oil fields in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. They will get a lot of help from the EU and the UN, this time. Therefore, no oil crisis should occur. Having US troops leaving Arab cities to patrol the oil fields will decrease the number of attacks on them, and greatly reduce fatalities. This is the kind of PR Israel can take advantage of with the help of her friends, to endear herself to the American public.
If the US play its cards right, it will be in a stronger moral position. Pressure will be put on the Administration in charge not to allow the State Department to act in such a dishonorable way again. It should work for a while. Americans know when they see a winner, Israel, and how to turn a threat into an opportunity.
Jihad will change its meaning from offensive to defensive struggle, from destroying Israel and taking over the world to protecting Mecca and the religion of Islam. Muslim countries will police each other and themselves, to make sure no one makes a terrible mistake and jeopardizes Mecca. Two great religions, two holy cities, we'd better think of each other as equals, from now on.
The families of the victims of 9/11, and the victims of terrorism in Israel will get a measure of closure.
Israel should make Jerusalem its religious, as well as political, capital, and offer no explanations to UN member countries. They've done their share of terrorism. The country is small. Embassies can stay in Tel-Aviv, or anywhere else. Their having their embassies anywhere on the land is a privilege they don't deserve. Why make Jerusalem an even more expensive city than it already is?
Saudi and Gulf money stashed abroad and "belonging" to their royal families can be used in part to pay for the settlement and betterment of the Palestinians refugees and those transferred. The UN will gladly agree, because their executives can take a cut, like the oil for food program. Most of the money should be returned to the people of those countries.
As per Jan Goodwin's Price of Honor, since 1974, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have had a confidential agreement with the US, under which their massive petro-dollar investments in America are to be kept secret. Otherwise, the oil flow would allegedly stop. As Goodwin points out, this "flight capital" ensures the royal families involved of total control of their citizens' oil wealth - robbery, in other words, courtesy of the West and at the expense of Israel. This is a chance for the US and Europe to look good and do a transfer of this stolen wealth back to the owners. And apologize. It is the best recipe to avoid terrorism in the future.
International terrorism will suffer a blow, because the conditions will have changed overnight. The rationale for supporting these organizations will be gone. There will be deportations of Muslims considered dangerous by the Western nations back to their countries. The ones remaining will be expected to abide by the laws of the country they live in. Most of them already do. That's all anyone can ask for.
Will Jews continue to be attacked in Europe?
Potentially, yes. Certainly European Muslims will go on a rampage. Many Christian Europeans might join in. It is a calculated risk all Jews must accept. Nevertheless, in order to maintain order and avoid chaos, these governments will likely deploy enough forces to maintain order. What other alternative will they have? They must get tough for their own sake. If the situation of the Jews in some European countries becomes untenable, then moving to Israel is the solution. A stronger Israel, that is. Maybe the one million Jews desired are coming home, after all. This time they are free to go. This time the British can not set up a naval blockade outside Haifa with impunity.
Let the Europeans replace any Jewish brain drain with young Saudis with degrees in Islamic studies.
The UN is likely to cease to exist as is. A different model will need to be developed, in which international crises are handled with the purpose of saving people regardless of who they are.
There will be economic sanctions against Israel. After all, politics is a game. But these are not likely to be too long or too harmful. Israel will have done the world a lot of good, and nobody needs to say "thanks".
Conclusion: Importance of People Versus Structures and Holy Sites
Consider the consequences of the destruction of a nation, her people and all they have built. Then reflect on whether "Checkmate" or a variation of it is appropriate.
Absurd? Make a relative comparison. Why is it absurd? Are WMDs against Israel better? Just because the Arabs and the world have (correctly) assumed that Israel won't do certain things, unless she is nuked, is on the verge of military annihilation, or something similar? They have eroded her, little by little, decade after decade, encircling her, undermining her, under the thinly disguised cover of perpetual Arab dictatorships and Western cowardice. Therefore, they must all now be taught a lesson.
When others compare Israel's plight with the situation in Northern Ireland, for example, the main point is missed. Nobody is threatening to drown or exterminate anyone there. If worse comes to worst, their citizens hold Irish or British citizenship. During the Cold War, ideology made the world unsafe. However, neither the US nor the USSR had planned to occupy each other's country, push the local population into the sea and move their own people to colonize the loser's land.
Muslims traditionally have turned other people's holy sites into mosques, or destroyed them and built mosques on the same spot, burying the former and replacing them with the symbol of the "true faith". They respect nothing. Everything is done in the name of Islam, and anything else is either denied or considered work done by infidels. In Israel's case, they claim that she has never existed - denying her history and the Temple - and that today's Jews are not even Jews, although they should be killed just to be on the safe side. Let's reverse the process without mass killings and rebalance the worry of survival more equitably.
Of course, in the end, the US and Israel will agree that the former should take credit for saving Mecca and Islam. Some things, after all, never change.
Are structures worth sparing, when we have hundreds of suicide bombings, the State is slowly being undermined and her people threatened with annihilation? Who but the victims should have the right to decide what is right and wrong? Think about it for a second. We're talking destruction and genocide all over again. Is a holy site more important? What if "Checkmate" could have been done in time to save 3,000 people's lives on 9/11? Is the Medina mosque worth more than the life of the person reading this article right now, his family, her people?
Non-Muslim holy sites certainly don't seem to be worth much - look how the Arabs vandalized and destroyed Joseph's tomb when it was put under Muslim protection. Who decides? Why should Israel not do certain things when the other side wants total annihilation? Because of oil? Because of Arab pride and honor? Who decides?
