I suspect the short case is betting the core Australian PDL...

I suspect the short case is betting the core Australian PDL business will go backwards, materially. That's basically why CCP de-rated earlier this year, because the PDL purchasing fell of a cliff and competitors (CLH) are simultaneously upping purchasing and taking market share. The Aus PDL segment is still the core engine for earnings, and with the US only marginally profitable and lending already at a large market share, future declines/stagnation in the core business will hurt growth. Obviously, Management feel that the PDLs on offer in Aus don't meet the returns criteria, and/or that the US and lending returns are better, so they are backing off from purchasing. This is good in the long term for shareholders, however the 'market' wants to always see growth in the very near future.