Hey Franky,
To address your question in relation to who is/ or going to be the lowest cost provider between Venture Global & LNG LTD, i believe Venture Global pips us at the post
IF their final EPC cost is indeed $4.5B. They have an EPC contract with Tecnicas Reunidas, EPC with CB&I for US $200,000 for construction of 2 single containment LNG storage tank units and Chart Industries Inc will provide midscale, modular technology using IPSMR liquefaction technology & proprietary equipment. I've read no press that the $4.5B is a fixed turnkey contract... but if their figures turn out to be correct, EPC costs work out to $405 Million/tonne. They are also quoting discounted liquefaction tolling fees 0f $2-$2.25... i find this an unlikely aspiration or they're trying to undermine and disrupt the market, stalling project development, allowing them to catch up! No financing in place! In comparison to us, our
binding LSTK price is $4.354B equating to a range of $495-$544 Million/tonne. Thats tough to beat!!
Keep in mind folks, Magnolia can put LNG on the water and ship for approx $7 (source gas US $2.90/mcf by 2023-24, tolling fee of US $2.5/mcf and transport costs of US $1-2/mcf). On the 23rd of May, Residential Natural Gas prices were US $9.65/mcf so when you take that in-to account... Magnolia's price makes trading very attractive with potential buyers!
To answer your question
@mickmick2891 "are we looking at signing tolling agreements with LNG gas buyers and producers or just producers" ? If the contract with a buyer is a LTA, the offtaker pays for the pipeline capacity. If contract is a SPA, we pay for the cost of the gas pipeline capacity, at an additional component computed at 13% of the HH gas cost. Hope that helps.
@Timbogold, all new projects are trying to be optimistic with their construction start times. They wish to be attractive/ bullish as possible to lure customers and with how the macro environment has strongly U-turned, there might be reason to believe in speculative aspirations. Tellurian is
dreaming though with their belief construction will begin in first half of 2019!!
At the end of the day, GV can afford to hold strong on price because of;
1) Timely announcement from Woodside's Peter Coleman revising the target year where demand will outstrip supply from 2023 to 2021.
2) Soaring current & future demand from China.
3) Indian Government stating their plans over the next 7 years to build a further 15 terminals increasing import capacity to over 70mt (from current 20mt), which 14 of those proposals i know of.
4) Although demand from Japan (the world's leading LNG importer) has slowed to a halt due to nuclear power restarts, the growing use of renewable energy & lack of new infrastructure being built... we're targeting their contract renegotiations with Qatar (5mt up for negotiation), Australia (10.91mt), Malaysia (1.7mt), Oman (.66mt) and Brunei (3.40mt) with all contracts ending between 2022-25. While they're also seeking additional trading volumes.
5) Brent Crude on the march towards $100 by early 2019 or possibly in a couple of months according to Total CEO.
6) The mighty red ant being
"the only" shovel ready project worldwide amongst a real thin stock of projects who can guarantee supply by 2022/23.
What more can we wish for...
Peace!
