Cheniere

Did Cheniere Bottom Yet?
Oct. 14, 2015 7:35 AM ET   |  About: Cheniere Energy, Inc (LNG)
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Summary

The natural gas market short-term fundamentals are spelling pain for companies like Cheniere.
The company is about to become the first large American LNG exporter and could see significant upside.
The company is overleveraged, but has to start improving their financial statements through a new segment.

Cheniere (NYSEMKT:LNG) came up on my radar when Carl Ichan added an additional position to bolster his stake to 12.07%. Cheniere again came up on my radar when Jim Chanos disclosed a sizeable short in the company. One of these individuals is going to be right and one is going to be wrong - that's just the name of trading game. What I want to know is whose camp we should be in. My analysis is lending itself to a long position at least through the first quarter of exports helping the company trend towards positive EPS.
Performance Update

This stock has been rattled this year and although we've seen a small October pickup before seeing some highly negative sessions. Falling natural gas prices has led to this decline and with commodities as a whole seeing incredibly low levels on the year, the dead cat bounces only do so much to entice long entries. Below you can see the YTD performance:
(click to enlarge)​