chess

So far we have been quite rectionary in our thinking of CVI and more particularly Global. This post will not be a downramp but an alternate view on what may be in store, so if your interested, read on it may take a while. It is positve btw.

The shorting of CVI by Global is imo quite strategic to CVI and Pensador. Through some of TMT's good work at his meeting i have been able to map out a possible scenario as to why MS has done what he has done and why.

Assuming CVI/Pensador/Falcon oil is a done deal and the election is the stalling point for ann's i have come up with the following scenario, and Global/HSBC continues to sell every share in it's register until mid to end August.

The next tranche of placements for CVI is to be 30c. Cast your memeory back far enough and you will remember that at the EGM one of the agenda items was to nullify or words to that effect the extra 15% that was issued. We are in a new financial year and no placement as of yet. The CVI share price has to rise to meet key parameters to successfully enact the claw-back. That means 75m can be placed at 30c to Global for a total of $22.5m and the key milestone of a refinery for example is clawed back for $15 per Pensador share (because we are all mates) giving CVI a further 1,500,000 Pensador shares.

In this the key ann comes out that CVI has enacted a further 2% of the clawback of the $1.4b Pensador fund. 1.5m of 60m =2%. On the back of this the market realises that this is happening and the SP makes further increases. The Market cap becomes say 50c on 550m shares = $275m. Wow gone form a 40m market cap to 275m in 2 months with off-shore/ refinery and President Jose de Hibbidi Hibbidi endorsing all. Lets list in Dubai via Quest, then NASDAQ via Pensador or other way round.

Not only have Global made their money, on the last leg up and down, they have to get the SP down as far as practicle without causing an obvious ASX issue, they will be buying on the way back up too. The shares will be bought and sold in the ensuing churn up to 30c. Think about how many will relinquish their shares on a turn in the market, especially those in the teens and wanting to break even because they plain old just dont trust these guys.

After all this the register firms up, global remains as the vehicle for holding a bank of CVI funds waiting for conversion to Pensador when they enact the clawback.

Tarkanyi and co never got to be rich bankers making friends, they are taking this company to the extremes to extract every last cent. The SP needs to be at rock bottom so they get what they, MS/CVI/Pensador want.

There will be another placement, i knew way back at the EGM that they needed to nullify the last placement on page whatever it was so that they had access to further cash, but it will be used to enact the clawback and the company will draw on the funds.

Think about it, i have.

All the best.

Bacchus