Chill out everyone good news coming, page-4

I say tiggy is intuitive. Step out of the emotion and look at the odds, that is apply a probability based on NewSat announcements not based on scaremongering gossip.

* this negotiation has been going on for months - goodwill is there or it will have collapsed long ago
* Fairfax are like a dog with a bone, they don't easily let go - yet they have been remarkably quite since the rebuke from NewSat on 2 March - just reporting the fact that CFO has resigned - they did not trying to fabricate a reason
* 27 Feb, Newsat and lenders have agreed to formalise a revised conditional waiver - was expected by end of March - likely to be a drawn out negotiation over terms and structure of new equity/debt
* 30 March - the solution is likely to require an additional capital raising.

What can we deduce?

The language is one of we'll get there: 'solution' 'agreed' 'capital easing' - nothing about governance or confidence in management of the company.

Why mid to end of March for finalisation but now suspended from quotation?

Capital raising at the level we will need relative to Mkt Cap will exceed ASX capital raising rules without shareholder approval, there are many pieces that need to be in place including a book build to test appetite (previously declared investor interests) before that can be put to shareholders. What do companies normally do in such circumstance? They suspend from quotation to prevent trading on incomplete information. This type of raising and administrative organising usually takes longer than 2 day TH to firm up the paperwork prior to announcement.

Why is it taking so long when first touted need for fresh capital 6 months ago?

Tough one this, my suspicion is Exim have been actively involved in negotiations between Newsat and
investors plus the ongoing montitor of Teleport business revenues. There will be issues around the level of equity a new investor may have, the mix of debt/equity and the issue price. These matters can be long drawn out affairs. Now we are in a non-trading state that is evidence we are working on the final plans. Until finalised the risk remains of a last minute withdrawal but IMHO that is unlikely now. If not happening there would not have been a step after Trading Halt.

But what about CFO jumping ship?

There is clearly high stakes at play. It could be CFO cannot work with the players. Why? Possibly an ethics issue, possibly cannot agree to new personal terms, possibly felt out of depth in negotiations. I am certain it wouldn't be because CFO knows it is over, to leave on the eve of administration would be highly unprofessional and a black mark. Again the language used in announcement is 'transition'.

Ladies and gentlemen of the good ship Newsat, my 75% bet that we will survive and then go on to prosper is looking good.

Have faith, it is time for the resurrection.