Hi Steni,
I am not an authoritarian about this subject. So my strike rate of a correct answer may not be the norm. But here goes.
CHM operates in a hyper-competitive CAR-T space dominated by global giants Novartis, Gilead and a few smaller cap companies with established therapies and superior resources.
Despite promising Phase 1/2 trial progress we have
limited patient data (only 3 dosed as of Feb 2025). More to come though.
Most scientific people unless they are niche to this therapy will have problems differentiating from existing CAR-T approaches, this I believe will change. Trial results will change that. Remember we are targeting "hot" tumours. The interested CEO's will get the regulatory specialists and their CSO to have a look. They will then send it to their SAB's but this will take time.
Manufacturing complexities inherent to autologous therapies, we have proved up GMP certified batches. Slow progress but it's happening. I believe we can scale.
Market cap 8 million, CHM lacks the capital runway of larger players. Recent placements (A$5m + A$1m) could be seen as a good sign. Philanthropic organisations on board, there could be further challenges.
Patents are covered extending to, is it 2038?
To generate more patents is complex. Yes we can improve our current IP would take $$,but patents take seemingly "forever" to be approved. We would be looking at 4th generation then. I believe we have enough on third generation to pull it off . I will explain the complexities in the current series, maybe number 4.
Possibly we have limited analyst coverage. That needs to be think tanked upon completion of next goals maybe!
Institutional investor interest could be higher on non main stream media exposure ? Not sure maybe that's a NZT question.
High burn rate, yep agree, who isn't in this baby clinical space.
Extreme share price decline 95% that's a extremely hard pill to take. We all get hit over a period of time, if we invest in this end of the market. I have been at the wrong end of a delisting on a gas stock.
Lack of partnerships
creates legitimate investor caution. However, the Phase 1/2 data could alter this thesis.
On the upside
2025 clinical updates on CDH17 safety/efficacy may get an interest spark from the money end of town.
More patients recruited and waiting list long according to the CEO.
This is a third generation Car T product . So far the science is on track. There is more science to come. Why does the drug work ?
I hope to exactly explain that and the reason I bought. I wish to lay the basics first.
Remember this is not my forte to speculate on management decisions. I haven't the degree in business management. Way out of my depth .
Once we get into trial designs , endpoints , secondary endpoints, heterogeneous personalised patient stratification modelling , I am sure I can answer with more clarity.
The secret to this "girl" may be the biomarkers, even in a limited cohort . I await with anticipation. Like the Colonels Chicken , 11 herbs and spices.
Kpax
