Hi all,
Final part of the 6 part series. Firstly I am into the science moreso than the metrics. I have asked Perplexity Ai for assumptions here. Appreciate the SOI but the final value stands as per Ai.
Think of this as wonderland as opposed to the previous legitimate science briefs.
So conceptual only!
CHM valueMarket Value Projection for CDH17 CAR-T in NETs with Low Tumor BurdenMarket ContextThe global neuroendocrine tumor (NET) treatment market is projected to reach USD 2.88 billion in 2025 and USD 4.89 billion by 2034.
CDH17 CAR-T therapy is first-in-class and currently in early-phase clinical trials for NETs and other GI cancers.
The therapy is positioned as a highly selective, potentially curative option for patients with advanced, refractory NETs.
Risk Stratification and Niche IndicationIf CDH17 CAR-T is risk-stratified for NET patients with low tumor microenvironment burden (i.e., a more niche, biomarker-selected population)
Patient Pool: The eligible population would be a subset of all NET patients—those with low tumour burden, likely representing a minority of the total NET population.
Adoption Rate: Uptake would initially be limited to major cancer centers and highly selected patients, especially in the first years post-approval.
Pricing: CAR-T therapies are typically priced at a premium, often $300,000–$500,000 per patient in the US and similar markets, due to their complexity and curative potential.
Sales Value EstimateConservative Scenario (Niche, Risk-Stratified Use)Eligible NET patients (US/EU/major markets):
Estimated at 2,000–5,000 per year, assuming 10–20% of all advanced NETs meet the “low tumour burden” criteria.
Annual sales (at $400,000 per patient):2,000 patients: $800 million5,000 patients: $2 billionBroader Scenario (If Indication ExpandsLater data support use in a broader NET population or in other GI cancers, annual sales could capture a larger share of the projected $4.89 billion global NET market by 2034.
Strategic ValueFirst-mover advantage: As the first CDH17 CAR-T, it could command a strong position in the cell therapy space for solid tumors.
Licensing/partnership potential: Early success could attract big pharma partnerships, accelerating adoption and market penetration.
Summary:
If CDH17 CAR-T therapy is FDA-approved for a niche, risk-stratified NET population with low tumor microenvironment burden, annual sales could reasonably range from $800 million to $2 billion in major markets, with upside potential if the indication broadens.
This represents a significant but focused share of a growing multi-billion dollar NET treatment market.
Estimate the potential market capitalization of CHM if annual sales reach AU$800 million, we apply the current P/S ratio:Estimated Market Cap=Sales×P/S RatioEstimated Market Cap=Sales×P/S Ratio=AU$3.2billion.
So, the estimated market capitalization would be approximately AU$3.2 billion if CHM achieved AU$800 million in annual sales and maintained its current price-to-sales multiple.
Ok to estimate the acquisition price per share for Chimeric Therapeutics (ASX:CHM) at AU$800 million in annual revenue, we use the previously calculated market cap of AU$3.2 billion (based on a 4x price-to-sales ratio) and current share count data from search results:
Key AssumptionsShares Outstanding: Assumes no further dilution beyond the current 2.02 billion shares (recent rights issues and placements are already reflected in this figure) .
P/S Ratio Stability: The 4x ratio assumes consistent market sentiment despite CHM’s historical volatility (current share price: AU$0.004, -80% YoY decline) .
Profitability Ignored: CHM is unprofitable (AU$-17.83M net income in the last 12 months), so this valuation does not account for future earnings or margins .
Contextual RisksAcquisition Premium: Actual takeover bids often include a premium over the theoretical valuation. For example, a 20% premium would raise the price to ~AU$1.90 per share.
Pipeline Dependency: CHM’s value is tied to its clinical-stage oncology therapies (e.g., NK cell therapies), which carry high regulatory and commercial risk .
SummaryAt AU$800 million revenue with current metrics, the estimated acquisition price is AU$1.58 per share.
This is a simplified model and does not account for debt, cash reserves (AU$5.07M), or operational synergies .
Hard to believe but it seems Ai gives a plausible answer. Ai can also give abhorrent expectations in its answers. Think of it as another tool.
So Ai is saying given perfect conditions in clinical trials and FDA approval that these figures may be achievable.
My advice is for people here to use their favourite Ai ( mine is perplexity as it caters well to scientific research, to sort out similar comparisons and post on this thread, I will be very interested)
SP 1/2 a cent to those multiples is worth further research.
Jackjazz maybe because you have the qualifications can you elaborate as well.
Thankyou,all it's been a slog doing these 6 part series and I wouldn't be wasting my time on it unless I see the value.
Final conclusion, yes it's NASA based science but how many worldwide Companies are doing niche testing on NETS. Only one.ASX CHM.
I truly wish us all the best in this endeavour.
Kpax
(20min delay)