Hey mate,
Not sure if my opinion is worth much to be honest as I'm only a new speculative investor as of 2 years (been in ETF's and big caps prior to this) with a medical background who hasn't dabbled in anything pre-phase 2 until CHM. I think the beauty of this point in CHM is that you know for pretty sure that the bottom is in. It floated at a range of $0.295-0.4 and has pretty much stayed these levels since with no news. Those who had pre-ipo stock got them at $0.2 and the flip was HARD. I personally valued the stock at $0.31 (market cap ~$100m fully diluted) and have since got my average to $0.295 but this is based on no clinical data, rather
the merit of the idea (Chlorotoxin definitely attaches to GBM and is clinically validated in surgical resections etc),
management (been in stocks with mgmt in the past, understand how they work and what they've achieved) and the
addressable markets (which are yet to be properly spelt out and are of unmet medical need) and the
barriers for safety/efficacy data in CAR-T's. In this sense, CHM is as speculative as it gets.
Watching companies either falter or progress through phase 1's --> phase 3, I've noticed you tend to see a price appreciation in the lead up, and in the weeks after announcements that 'de-risk' the investment i.e. get further along to the final product. Ideally of course you'd expect this to be fairly straight line and linear but it's never the case and RAC is a good example of this - no news yet, lots of news coming, and a big run up in the anticipation for this news.
At the end of the day I think price movements are a question for chartists (technical analysts) closer to the event, but the price at the moment and its fluctuations can be fairly said to be supply:demand market mechanics rather than anything intrinsic to the fundamental analysis to CHM itself.
I'm happy with what it is now. On successful Phase 1 data I'd be happy to pay $0.7 personally (~$230m market cap) but keep in mind, CHM are unloading interim (unblinded) results March, June and September according to the image I uploaded in a post above.
Hope that helps mate, and agree completely with
@dalts66. Only recently been comfortable to back a pure phase 1 stock, but CHM makes a good case for it being one of the better ones out there.
Cheers
