Hi, I understand where you are coming from, I think we have...

Hi, I understand where you are coming from, I think we have different assumptions / expectations regarding Syrah ability to ramp up production / sales at its Balama plant. Sure if Syrah is able to achieve nameplate at 300.000tpa by next year, and sell all this production to off-takers while still not detsroying prices and making a profit per tonne (you see the number of assumptions here ? what are the odds ?), then you are absolutely right. The question is : could they? Time will tell who is right/wrong on this.

However going by history, it is extremely rare for any new mine/processing plant of industrial minerals to get it right during the first months of production. Look at Orocobre. What maakes things even more complex for Syrah is the scale of operations which has never been attempted before. The biggest graphite plant in the wolrd is in Brazil at max 60.000tpa. Syrah iss trying to produce and sell 5 folds that ! and succeed in doing that in just one year ! good luck with that.

Regarding Syrah VS BSM, if you are comparing the scale of operations, then it is apples to oranges. Even with its expansion plans, BSM will be producing under 30.000tpa by 2020. Syrah by that time intends to produce 10 times that. So clearly different scales / valuations. Howver if you want to compare upside potential of stock price, it is clear that BSM offers a much higher upside potential than Syrah no matter how much dilution will hit BSM on the road to expand production and achieve 30.000tpa. Ask yourself this question : at 20M$ market cap for BSM and 1 Billion$ market cap for Syrah, what are the odds of a Disallowed for BSM compared to Syrah ?

Contrary to shorters (who think Syrah will go bankrupt) I think they are wrong, and that Syrah as a company producing graphite will succeed in the long term, especially after the recent smart cap raise of 110M$, however not at the same speed predicted by Syrah investors, there is no way they would be able to produce 300.000tpa by next year, and I fail to see how at this market valuation (1 Billion$) investors could make any money. the upside potential is limited yet the downside potential is real and huge (any bad news on commissioning / disappointing sales-cash flow) will hit the stock price very hard). Mark my words and we may compare notes in a year from now.