China ban export rare earth processing, page-26

Yes you are missing a lot. The entire lamp was done by Rhodes (Spelling?) a French company. Rhodes had done the same design years before for China.. They upgraded the design to use modern sensing and control. The basic SX circuits are the original French design via China. There are many newer ways of separation. There is one big enhancement for SX based systems that most new plants use and that is roasting the output of C&L which has shown better output of SX and the need for less solvents. I still do not know why Lynas did not include roasting the output of KAL to dry and improve the output before shipping but they did not. A pure guess is that something in Lamp design made it difficult to take roasted output. Or maybe energy cost at KAL that made Roasting too expensive. There is only one company roasting to day but most new designs use it. MCP had it in their pilot plant. And MP has used it in their new plant and talked about the improvement in last CC

If Lynas had anything so special why do they not have a single AU or international patent. I have searched US and EU patents and not even a rejected patent application with Lynas's name on it. Plenty of patentents with Rhodes name on them but they have not been consigned to Lynas so Rhodes still controls them.

I have asked many times what the IP is for Lynas. I seldom receive a reply but when I do it is in tuning the process and enhancing it. NEXT is usually an example. Next has been done for over 4 years. In the most recent AGM AL said they are currently averaging just over Original Name plate 6 KT a year. This is far from NEXT at 7.2KT a year So you explain to me where the IP is other than the imagination of up rampers. Yes they have had problems, Water, covid, shipping, Lack of rain, too much rain. But I judge a company on what it actually does not what they say might happen in future. This is the Q output from Lynas Q reports do you see anything amazing here? Yes they made NEXT in Q4 but it fell back in Q1 indicating to me that Q 4 was the results of heroic Cramming. the average out put for 2023 was 1526T the 5 Qs of 2023 and Q1 2024 was 1526. Yes exactly the same. Here are the numbers 2023 and Q1 2024 look up Q reports if you do not believe me.

	1045	1508	1687	1864	1526

All you say is true. Have you factored in what happens if China holds prices near to days levels instead of letting them rise to the 800 ~900 RMB WV Level. How valuable is increased capacity if the price you receive for product barely covers COP?

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As I read the above posts, I see a tendency to demean Chinas and discount them. If you talk to leaders from Generals to CEOs and read their books one trait that is common to all of them. They respect and overestimate the competition. To not fully appreciate what competition is doing usually results in a big failures. To think China is 'playing games' will result in you losing money.


I do not like China I believe they steal and are corrupt and may cause another major war the way they are going. They are fierce in achieving their goals and right now Dominating REE is just one of many goals. Do not underestimate what they may do. Current low REE prices must be hurting their internal companies. They will not let up on Prices till they have achieved their goals. To not understand this will cause most companies in this market severe pain. It will also cause big losses for stock holders of these companies. Yes this is hurting inside China but they will do this to hurt Non China companies to achieve these goals. The recent out of cycle quota raise when prices were close to a multi year low shows just how far they are willing to go. Lynas is a good company but to not understand that they have less than 10% of the market And China INC has more than 80 % is not to understand what is going on. Lynas will make it. They are well establish and have government support. What they will look like in a few years brings up lots of questions. I will wait and see. JMO these low prices will last and Lynas cannot make revenue and profits to support even a $6.00 Stock price at these levels. This is true even if they reach AL's goal of a 12.5 K run rate by end of C 2024.The euphoria and high REE prices of years past are gone for a year or two, at least. I think the 10.5 K run rate will not happen just like NEXT is years late.

Just a note China has over 80 % of the REEO market if you include metals, magnets and motor manufacturing it is over 90%