WHC 0.11% $8.95 whitehaven coal limited

There's two ways to look at this:1. Low exposure to China means...

  1. 283 Posts.
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    There's two ways to look at this:

    1. Low exposure to China means there's less volatility in terms of pricing and the company being at the whim of one large customer. That being said, China is the largest consumer of coal by a large margin. To believe that no one is affected by how they are able to control the price of coal is naive to say the least.
    https://yearbook.enerdata.net/coal-lignite/coal-world-consumption-data.html

    2. Low exposure to China also means that WHC still hasn't reached it's fullest potential. You can sell to India who can give you second best prices or you can sell to China who can give you the best prices. It's like an OEM manufacturer not being on Boeing's supplier list. You can sell to smaller plane manufacturers like Dassault but you know once you get onto the big boy list you are going to be set for life.

    Is there a way to reconcile the need between price stability and profitability? Yea, sell a sizable portion of coal to China for profit but never rely only on one customer. Sell a good portion to India and Japan as well even if it means taking a smaller profit.

    On a separate topic, everyone thinks a recession is coming in 2020 and it will originate from China's unsustainable debt. Yet time and time again, when everyone expects something to happen, it doesn't. Recessions always come from left field and central authorities are often caught unprepared. RBA governor Philip Lowe said he'll do QE when interest rates get down to 0.25% and that shows that he is prepared. I am guessing most governments are prepared for a huge money printing exercise because it worked the last time. Bonds yields will be pulled down to near zero and funds will be forced to go to the stock market to look for yield.

    If people don't know what this means for WHC I can't do anything for people.
 
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