imu to short circuit looming catastrophe , page-2

Americans are more interested and concerned than Aussies.

I read Nightly Business Report from USA everyday. Below is from 16 March - see nbr.com

Also recently half of one Oprah show devoted to a serious presentation on bird flu.

IMU was also on channel 7 recently - excellent product / delivery system options.

Were two instos selling early 0.20's so watch out for these. Once gone 0.30 very easy. Merial large French company do not become involved with maybe's.

How Bird Flu Will Infect and Affect Business
Thursday, March 16, 2006
LINDA O`BRYON: Four Asian nations and Denmark confirmed today the presence of the deadly h5n1 strain of avian flu in poultry. That as U.S. securities regulators said with proper planning they believe financial markets can remain open during any outbreak. Joining me now to discuss the potential impact of a bird flu pandemic on U.S. businesses is Paul Heldman. He is the senior health policy analyst at Citigroup Investment Research. Paul, from your research, is America prepared for an avian flu outbreak?

PAUL HELDMAN, SR. HEALTH POLICY ANALYST, CITIGROUP: Well, Linda, I`m happy to be here. I think that for all the efforts discussed by securities regulators, that the U.S. government and other industrialized nations are not completely prepared, even though they`ve taken several steps to move down that road. The Bush administration admits as much. For all the Bush administration`s effort and their recognition of the avian flu threat and their effort to build stockpiles and work closely with local health officials, the problem that the administration faces is that democracies generally respond best when in crisis. And right now while there`s growing awareness among the American public about the threat of a flu pandemic, there`s greater concern, for example, over the war in Iraq.

O`BRYON: I was going to mention that your research outlines various scenarios for avian flu. And what are they?

HELDMAN: Well, I think when we`re thinking about it from the perspective of the impact on the capital markets, investors have to look at several different potential scenarios. The first scenario is the most attractive scenario, one in which we wake up two years from now and we find out that it was all a bad dream in which avian flu did not mutate into a form in which there was human-to-human transmission and as a result, that would be positive for poultry producers.

O`BRYON: But then what is the likely impact if the virus turns out to be widespread?

HELDMAN: Well, I think we have to think about two scenarios there. One is the potential that it`s a mild form of the disease and one that it`s severe. For both mild and severe form of the disease, I think initially investors would move into the bond market as a safe haven and out of the equity markets. And I think that the initial immediate losers would be airlines, luxury goods, hotels, travel industry. And the winners would be the pharmaceutical industry, biotechs, especially those who were working on the development of vaccines, hospitals and cleaning supply companies and medical supply companies.

O`BRYON: From a public policy perspective, what should the government be doing to help business and individuals to be prepared?

HELDMAN: Well, I think that the government -- the governments walk a very fine line when they`re preparing for avian flu, because on the one hand they don`t want to create a sense of panic, but they want to create an appropriate sense of urgency. And by doing so and by reaching out to the business community and meeting with local health officials, I think that over time we will -- this country and other countries will be prepared. But I also think that there are some things that are beyond their control. I think that there need to be other catalysts such as a bird with avian flu being discovered on U.S. soil to ratchet up the effort among companies and among the U.S. government and the Congress to prepare for avian flu pandemic potentially.

O`BRYON: Paul, thank you for that overview. Our guest, Paul Heldman, senior health policy analyst for Citigroup Investment Research.