Where should we start? I've noted the faction struggles within the Politburo and I've criticised the "contest" (with the US) roadmap that is pushed by the PLA and by Xi.
I read that in spite of it's internal fractures and a real economy that is worse that what is reported, China currently feels empowered. The mantra that China's time has come is widely accepted and I don't doubt China's resilience.
China's didn't suddenly feel empowered because Trump was elected president in 2016 BUT hard line factions within the CCP and Politburo were empowered by Trump Administration incompetence. China's influence was growing prior to Trump but it has also accelerated to new levels because of Trump.
And so China has been pushing all of it's international boundaries to see how far it can get before a pushed back happens, as it did along the Indian border. All of the nations that have territorial issues with China will now co-ordinate more closely and spend up big on military hardware (to the benefit of Russia and the US). At the same time these countries will also start to diversify their supply and export chains. Such outcomes are not in China's longer term interests BUT if China isn't actually prepared to follow through with territorial threats the posturing's and rearmament by neighbouring countries probably doesn't matter to China.
My expectation is that countries disputing borders with China will none the less continue to work with China rather than against China (or in competition with China). The only way to dissolve China's many layers of paranoia is actually to work collaboratively with China but military rearmament is none the less needed to send a quiet message to the hardliners within China.
It's time for both China and the US to get out of the sandpit and work towards a situation where China can calmly collaborate with the US, Europe and all of its neighbours including Japan.
