The landmines for a future war have likely already been laid inside our borders.
The cyber battalions of the People’s Republic of China have compromised parts of our critical infrastructure and are hunting for weaknesses in all of it. The bombs may never be detonated but the intention is clear, and hostile. If Australia does find itself in conflict with China the first sign may be when the lights go out and the dams empty.
The evidence for this is hiding in plain sight in the latest threat assessment by ASIO director-general Mike Burgess and in warnings issued by the Australian Signals Directorate.
“The most immediate, low-cost and potentially high-impact vector for sabotage is cyber,” Burgess said. “Our critical infrastructure networks are interconnected and interdependent, which increases the vulnerabilities and potential access points.
“ASIO is aware of one nation-state conducting multiple attempts to scan critical infrastructure in Australia and other countries, targeting water, transport and energy networks.”
The domestic spy chief’s counterpart in the US admits what Burgess omits; the enemy is already inside the castle walls. In testimony before a congressional committee in January FBI director Christopher Wray acknowledged the vast scope of the operation and named China as the adversary.
“There has been far too little public focus on the fact that (People’s Republic of China) hackers are targeting our critical infrastructure, our water treatment plants, our electrical grid, our oil and natural gas pipelines, our transportation systems,” Wray said. “And the risk that poses to every American requires our attention now.
“China’s hackers are positioning on American infrastructure in preparation to wreak havoc and cause real-world harm to American citizens and communities, if and when China decides the time has come to strike.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and China's President Xi Jinping.
Here, ASD director-general Rachel Noble has been warning about the threat posed by state-based hackers to critical infrastructure for years. In the days after Wray’s testimony Noble’s agency joined Five Eyes partners in the US, Canada, Britain and New Zealand in releasing a guide to help network administrators spot signs their systems had been hacked by Chinese government-backed actors.
Last week Wray released more details on Beijing’s hacking campaign, by a group known as Volt Typhoon.
Volt Typhon uses malware to exploit vulnerabilities in thousands of home and business routers in the target country to build an interconnected zombie battalion called a botnet. The computational muscle is then harnessed to punch a hole in the defences of a company’s public-facing computer system.
Once inside, the mode of attack changes. Instead of using malware, the hallmark of Volt Typhoon is “living off the land”: recruiting legitimate system tools and functions to evade detection.
Then it employs a technique called “privilege escalation” to ascend the network command chain until the adversary becomes an administrator and its parasite commands look identical to those of the host victim. It can then lie dormant for years, clandestinely monitoring the company’s activities and poised for a future strike.
Government sources have confirmed that China is the country Burgess was referencing, that Volt Typhoon is the vector and that it has likely infected some of our critical systems. This is something that should be shouted from the rooftops because it is no different to planting a bomb on the Sydney Harbour Bridge. It is a blatant act of aggression.
Our security agencies are doing their job but have become cautious, muted by a government desperate to remarry an unrepentant, abusive partner. In a triumph of optimism over experience it believes this bad relationship is best managed by hiding the bruises.
The mantra for managing Beijing is “co-operate where we can, disagree where we must”. But if you aren’t going to violently disagree when virtual bombs are planted on home soil, then when are you going to do it?
The official silence on this extends to the top of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet. Its secretary, Glyn Davis, managed to get through an entire speech to the Australian National University’s National Security College this month without once saying “China” in assessing threats to Australia’s critical infrastructure.
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The establishment is busy dusting the shelves for the expected June visit of Chinese Premier Li Qiang and no one in PM&C or the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade wants to sully the experience with uncomfortable truths. The notion that vocal security hawks saying alarming things are to blame for all the troubles of the past is now accepted wisdom.
This blithely ignores that the troubles arose as Australia sought to defend itself from routine acts of aggression. Beijing’s overt hostility against our nation goes well beyond the recent preparation for sabotage and is evident inside our borders and without.
Beijing conducts industrial-scale information theft from our governments and the private sector. It runs a relentless information war aimed at undermining our democracy and our alliances. It sought to buy influence in politics through donations. Its officials have threatened to leverage the Chinese diaspora to bring political parties to heel, and its supporters have intimidated university students.
Chinese diplomats have demanded Australian MPs cancel meetings with Hong Kong’s pro-democracy advocates and whistled up domestic sympathisers to hound journalists. The worst abuse is against Chinese Australians, who have been targeted by CCP agents who threaten the lives and liberty of their China-based families. The PRC views them not as Australians but “overseas Chinese” and expects them to show fealty to it or suffer the consequences, no matter where they are in the world.
Beyond our borders Beijing has illegally occupied and militarised the South China Sea, trampled the legitimate claims of other nations, harassed our navy in international waters, fired a military-grade laser at an RAAF plane and has threatened the safety of our divers.
It is seeking to establish a naval base off our east coast, which would effectively ring-fence Australia’s sea lanes. Its fishing fleet of more than half a million vessels is stripping the oceans bare and its footprint in the Antarctic just keeps expanding.
This is not an exhaustive list but a solid starting point for a bit of healthy disagreement.
But the Canberra establishment does have a point in recognising one truth: all Beijing really wants is our silence. To voice no objection no matter what it decides to do in the world, our region or our nation. Stay silent and the rivers of gold will keep flowing.
It seems such a trifle and has enthusiastic advocates in the serried ranks of ex-politicians, bureaucrats, state governments, business people and university vice-chancellors.
To others that silence means living in a mental gulag. It means giving up the one thing that makes living in a democracy meaningful: the right to disagree.
The failure to call out egregious behaviour is not an act of policy genius. Silence denotes consent for the world that China is building in tandem with other tyrannies. It makes Australia a willing labourer in the walled garden Beijing intends to brick us into.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and China's President Xi Jinping.
