Unfortunately we were the pioneers of this industry and over the years it was exploited through immigration policies with successive govts. This therefore allowed the commercialisation of the university to meet shortfall findings from Federal Govt. Besides the injection of funds into each capital cities such as food, housing and services, it propped up Howard's initiative of property negative gearing making a property more than just for living. Shorten found out what happens when he tried to reform this cash cow for property investors!
I think you will see the same issues within the nursing profession, short term shortages with easy access of the immigration policy to import overseas then cost cutting in hospital render a surplus of nurses!
Again the building trade makes up a big numbers of employment so it is a catch 22. Reform the property sector investment and this union together with economists will cry foul. So how did Federal Govt address the pandemic lockdown and recessionary transition? Yep, the gave massive tax write-offs in home renovations, FHB grants and all those encouragements. This sector knows the 'Feds got your back' mindset probably in similar sentiments with China and their property sector culminating with Evergrande in their over leveraged debt.
China's debt issue is round 1, considered local relatively speaking. Who know if or when there is a contagion effect but with Pres Xi crackdown on all the previous sector, he had already hinted about property investing and this is where I suspect Canada and Oz comes into focus with the inflow from Chinese punters pre-pandemic. A sudden domestic big pull back in property valuation will affect their overseas punts and knowing these buggers, they are leveraged to their eyeballs so good luck expecting Xi to come for the rescue.
Basically Evergrande is dead man walking. Their commercial paper or equity holders are finished. Those unfinished property contracts will most likely be completed by other developers with State backing liquidity in similar way post-lehman TARP. I'm sure their concerns are contagion of the banking industry counter party debt holders.
What impacts Evergrande has other knock on effects internationally including market sentiment.
Effectively we could be kissing Chinese tourists/students goodbye so depends which side of the economic or social fence one is leaning, this is good or bad news.
The bad news is our leveraged to the Chinese commodity boom is tapering both economically & politically. The good news is probably a more moderate cost if living generally although the supply chain inflation has not signal of tapering yet.
Decoupling as the rubber is hitting the road with burnouts now on one wheel. I have to see a 4 wheel burnout!
