I recogise you have tagged me previously. At the end of the day it is going to come down to the V205 price, and I am still scratching my head why the price remains so low given the demand/supply imbalance. From an IRR point of view, TMT and AVL will both have fundamental capital raising issues at this price, i.e. project feasibility issues at this price, which I posted about on the AVL threads a little while ago - refer here: Post #:
38738778
Whilst I recognise in terms of timeframe to market TMT is ahead of AVL, especially given you have already commenced the EPA process etc etc, and have a better handle on the process flowsheet since AVL's requirement to revisit its own PFS IMO - refer Post #:
38791252 - the low V205 price is going to impact the IRR, in terms of project feasibility, and TMT's ability to raise capital. It is not just a question that at US$8 per pound price is greater than opex because it is the factoring in of capital within a IRR concept that determines project feasibility - i.e. does TMT's project at price x for V205 offer a better rate of return to an investor who can invest elsewhere is the question and hence the underlying logic of NPV/IRR analysis. (AVL will also have the same problems at this price.)
What this means is TMT might end up having to give more of the farm away in an equity for Offtake Agreement, or as you said be taken out on a opportunistic low ball takeover offer (albeit it would be a controlling interest only as doubt they would get the 90% plus shares required to delist the entity from the ASX and compulsory acquire the remaining shares.
Which has had me thinking since reading your posts - why is the price of V205 so low, and it can't be solely explained by niobium as a substitute product - refer Post #:
38418764
Questions
(1) Is China actually implementing the rebar standards and/or has stopped producing vanadium from slag? Not clear the answer here but the Chinese are saying yes to both.
(2) Or is Glencore happy to see the price this low since it is teh main seller through its 'trading house' of vanadium to Chinese/end customers - just speculation as the low price allows vanadium players to suffer and with that comes opportunity for Glencore to take a stake in projects meaning short term pain for long term gain on the Glencore's balance sheet. (Last time Glencore payed with the vanadium market, which was back in the mid 2000s is when it closed Windimurra which saw vanadium prices go through the roof, and guess what Glencore made a killing then because it owned the other vanadium mines.)
It is an unusual market right now, and one I haven't been able to fathom why the price is so low, but I do expect it to pickup. Is it 1 or 2 above or a combination of both - simply I don't know.
The above embedded posts I wrote in AVL but the data in them might be useful to yourselves as they are more around the vanadium market per se.
All IMO and obviously all the above is pure speculation by me
