IMO, China is offering us a lesson in trade diplomacy:
(a) we have refused the BRI
(b) we have refused Chinese 5G
(c) we have backed Trump grievances with China.
Chinese obvious conclusion:
Australia is not to be trusted as a long term trading partner
because if the USA bunged on full Trade Sanctions on China,
Australia would comply.
As such China has to establish alternative sources of supplies
for its food, energy & minerals.
Since the Trump election in late 2016, China has concentrated
its investment in BRI partner countries and the trans Asia BRI
infrastructure projects to shore-up its distribution & supply lines
in the event of full US Trade Sanctions.
This essentially has left us our in te cold. China is saying to us:
"If you want to back the USA in its anti-China policies, then you
better rely on the USA economically in te future. This constitutes a
serious problem for Aus:
-US is a global trade competitor in food, coal, LNG fish, wine cotton etc
-The USA does not want our Iron Ore , Bauxite or Met Coals
-Since 2005 (start of the Aus-US FTA) the USA has run a trade surplus with us.
In retrospect we have to seriously as if our Government made the right
anti-China calls at the right time and one does not have to be Einstein
to work out that we would be better served economically to ave kept
our anti-China powder dry until we had an economic plan "B" in place
particuluarly given the economically devastating effects of Covid both
here and globally.
Chinese trade "sanctions" on us will cost the country half of its $60
billion trade surplus with China this year and the remainder next year,
IMO.
You might say that this is National debt, not mine, but eventually
the rapidly accruing national debt will have to be paid down with interest
and we all as taxpayers will have to foot the bill.
The bottom line now is that we need a "Plan B" to counter the massive
negative effect that China trade has had on our economy (we'll become
aware of that next year). As yet there is none forthcoming.
Instead we are more interested in who is shagging who within the Canberra
Bubble and bugger the economy!
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