china ree supply to dwindle to 36%

Thanks to Dictum de dicto on UK BB iii:

China moving from sell to buy side in rare earths - CSRE

VANCOUVER (Metal-Pages) 24-Jan-11. China expects that it will become a net importer of rare earths within the next five years and is not going to increase production of the vital elements, said Chen Zhanheng, a director at the Chinese Society of Rare Earths.

"There are early signs that China is moving from a sell side to a buy side. China is the largest user of rare earths in the world and it will become a new market opportunity for producers outside of China and there will be other opportunities to sell other products to China related to the REE industry," said Chen.

He said that "China"s quota at present is 30,258 tonnes, but from January to October 32,990 tonnes was exported. But from 2011 to 2015, the quota should be 32,000 to 35,000 tonnes and the demand balance should be 18,000 to 50,000 tonnes. This is a great opportunity for new
producers," he said.

"This is a return to a rational development that was started in 2006 and China is now a growing consumer," he said.

The executive said that in 2009 China provided about 94.2% of global supply of rare earths at 129,400 tonnes, with India providing about 1.97%, Russia about 1.8% and the US about 1.2%.

He forecast that China's supply will dwindle to 87,000 tonnes or 65% of global supply by 2013, and that this trend will continue to 36% after 2015, with supply at 100,000 tonnes and the rest of the world at 64% at 178,000 tonnes a year.

Chen's comments were read out at the Critical Metals Investment Symposium in Vancouver, Canada, as he was not able to attend in person.

He also said that there will be reduced production and exports from China over the next few years and China�s growing cleantech and hightech industries will be buyers of rare earths.

"The 10,381 tonnes of REE concentrate imported by China (in 2009) is likely to increase," he said.

John Kaiser, an analyst at KaiserResearch said at the symposium that "China is expecting the rest of the world by 2015 to be doing as it does now (in terms of REE exports) and it is not going to increase production. I see a serious shortage happening if China restricts output, and a serious crisis needs to be solved."

http://amrminerals.co.uk/assets/files/Monday%2024%20January%202011-Metal%20Pages.pdf