ok, people keep saying there will be deal in Greece etc, this is...

ok, people keep saying there will be deal in Greece etc, this is what is happening. 2 weeks ago (i lost track so lets just say 2 weeks) a deal was "imminent" and it has been imminent everyday ever since.

So what is holding up everyone?

1. Private holders of greece are happy to take the "haircut", but they want signed assurance Greece will receive the next bailout package from the EU/IMF/ECB.

2. Despite the write down of privately held Greek bonds, the debt to GDP will still be more than 120% due to economic contraction, the target set by the EU/IMF/ECB.

3. IMF wants ECB held Greek government bonds to take a similar "haircut", this is resisted by ECB and EU due to moral hazard and setting a precedent. The notion is that if Greece gets this special treatment from the ECB, other countries that sold govt bonds to the ECB will demand similar action.

4. EU/IMF/ECB recognises that Greece is a blackhole, there is good chance it needs to stump up more money than allocated for the Greece rescue fund. Due to the inability of the Greek govt to implement austerity reforms. EU/IMF/ECB doesn't want to stump up more money, even putting to question the next tranche of the bailout package.

5. The Greeks are suffering badly from all the austerity "reform", elections are coming. The EU/IMF/ECB wants the head of the political parties to literally sign on to the rescue plan, this is resisted by the political parties. The people simply cannot take anymore austerity, they feel they have nothing left to give, thus strikes are common.

6. Under the bailout plan, the Greeks are losing their sovereignty and their dignity, all for the continued existence of the Euro which is the root of their problems. People are questioning whether it is easier to default and start over.

7. EU/IMF/ECB is expecting further austerity "reforms", now calling for Greece to cut the minimum wage to promote "competitiveness and productivity".

8. This is semi-related to the debate, I found it funny. Deutsche Bank AG (DB) Chief Executive Josef Ackermann said today "We are very close and hopefully will reach an agreement within the next days or weeks," LOL @ next days or weeks, is this what imminent deals are becoming nowdays.

So yes, here is Greece "imminent" deal 101, Should we care? If deal is signed markets will not do alot, since it is priced in already, but if no deal than bang market gets shot and the shorts win. Personally I don't care