When the World economy is taken as a whole, GDP growth is actually not too bad ... but the details reveal the developed economies are growing slowly and the emerging economies are becoming a greater percentage of the overall number [EM's currently account for 51% of Global GDP .... in 1994 36%]
GDP in Japan is advancing for the first time in years .... Abenomics has so weakened the Yen that they are enjoying major export related advantages. Despite the dodgy numbers coming out of the US, it also is beginning to grow.
I receive a newsletter which puts the positive case ... I supply the link below but I do not know for sure it will work. [If the link works ... there are a few pages of waffle then from about page 7 it offers some very interesting counter arguments to the doom scenarios that are getting most of the headlines atm]
Although I agree that the $US is under threat of losing its status ... it is not yet a foregone conclusion. There are some very complex politics to play out yet. It is not entirely clear to me, also, that China is singled minded about things either. I believe pragmatism rules .... they would not agitate for radical change if they can still do OK under the current status quo... imo.
That said .... the real growth and dynamism is coming from China. If they continue along that path then it kind of seems inevitable the Yuan will rise to the top. The recent talk about the new 'Silk Road' is heady stuff. With the coming US elections it will be interesting whether we see any major shift in US policy towards China. At the moment the US is treating China as a threat [and has done so for several years already] but if that was to change at the policy level, where the US accepted the rise of China and worked more cooperatively, things would be better for everybody [not likely though... that the US will re-examine itself on such a fundamental level]
This image came along the other day ... shows the extent of China's ambitions. Lots of caveats with it all, imo, because it will be a very expensive expansion. They are talking huge sums to fund that dream. I don't know where gold ultimately fits into the story ...... but, certainly, China has some ambition for gold [why else include it in strategic organizations like the above?]
