Hi Buddy,anything is possible!Good luck to you, but it means GBG...

Hi Buddy,
anything is possible!

Good luck to you, but it means GBG will have to go against the grain of the sector to do so or maintain that rise for long. Media and analyst commentary is fairly well unanimous now that the resources boom is slowing (or has ended, as some analysts are claiming). I don't recall any that are claiming the boom is still in full swing!

GBG has stated on a number of occassions that the finance and EPA approvals are "effectively" secured. So news on this won't be a big surprise. The share price will jump but I feel it may struggle to hold on to it if the rest of the materials sector is still going down.

I thought up untill very recently that the materials sector was ready to turn around but I think otherwise now.
There's little doubt China is slowing and the demand for steel is also slowing, and that demand for raw materials, is what has held up the sector. Take that away, as is happening now and supply can turn to oversupply fairly quickly. India is many years away from creating a demand like China did and is of little influence currently.

GBG as with all the producers, are luckily contracted but that won't stop the market from shying away from those stocks and sectors, causing them to underperform if commodity prices keep declining. Financial sector "may" be the significant gainers of a successful rescue package, but then a watered down version may see more carnage, who knows?

Elguido made a good point that it's in China's interests to encourage belief of a slowdown but how long will they need to maintain a charade like that in order to lock in lower prices for a meaningful term without damaging their own progress? Markets know when steel demand drops or building slows etc. so it's unlikely to fool BHP, RIO, Vale etc. for long. China's plea to the world's central banks to help bail out the US displays the importance of the US economy on China's future growth.

I'm not stating GBG won't be successful, just market sentiments are against the whole sector and GBG being profitless, will be a miracle to buck the trend when good, extremely profitable companies are being sold down steadily in fear of global recession.
For long termers, it's steady as she goes, for others, alternatives are worth considering, as would be using GBG as a trading stock.

Only my opinion which could be totally wrong but this is as the situation appears to me.