china steel article

More positive comments for Cairn Hill


Charlotte Dudley - MINING NEWS -
Friday, 14 March 2008

THE iron ore sector will continue to benefit from China�s growing steel consumption, analysts told delegates at the Global Iron Ore and Steel Forecast Conference in Perth yesterday.


Addressing conference delegates, Citi Investment Research analyst Tom Wrigglesworth painted a rosy picture for iron ore producers looking at the Chinese steel market.

In a Powerpoint swirl of graphs and statistics Wrigglesworth cited data from the last few years which indicated close to 75-80% of steel demand growth since 2001 had been driven by China, while other regions were showing signs of levelling off.

�From a global steel outlook we are expecting to see some kind of softening into 2008, clearly associated around the global slow down. But if anything the key questions remains, how much will China slow down?� he said.

Wrigglesworth also discussed how the rapid industrial development in eastern China is likely to extend into the country�s less developed western and central provinces over the coming years.

In terms of steel production and the Chinese Government, Wrigglesworth said infrastructure, inflation, domestic consolidation, foreign industry entrants and environmental management would all be key issues for the future.

Significant challenges for the iron ore sector included export and royalty taxes, higher costs, and lower grades.

Putting the focus on the rapid expansion of Chinese infrastructure, such as rail, roads and ports, AME Mineral Economics deputy chief executive Michael Dixon told conference delegates that by 2013, China would account for more than half of total world iron ore imports.

Dixon said declining domestic iron ore capacity would increase China�s reliance on imported sources.

He added that he considered the country�s �relentless� level of industrialisation to be a �generational activity� that would continue for some 10-20 years.

�We expect the industrialisation of China and infrastructure built will continue for the foreseeable future and this will drive iron ore import to extraordinarily high levels,� he said.

�And it�s critically the supply response to that from within China that will be critical in determining future iron ore prices.�

Dixon also warned environmental and economic issues would also challenge China�s future growth.