Australian Financial Review PRINT EDITION: 14 Mar 2011 Robert Guy Shanghai
China's aggressive plan for a fivefold increase in its nuclear generating capacity by 2015 is unlikely to be derailed by Japan's reactor emergencies, but experts warn the timing of new projects in Western nations may be slowed by greater regulatory scrutiny.
Chinese officials reiterated their commitment to an aggressive roll-out of nuclear power plants as the world's second-largest economy seeks to power its growth while combating a legacy of environmental damage caused by a reliance on coal for about 80 per cent of its electricity.
But Japan's reactor problems are likely to prompt closer examination of nuclear power in the United States and Europe, where the technology has made a comeback despite past incidents - Three Mile Island in 1979 and Chernobyl in 1986 - amid climate change concerns and a backlash against coal-fired power generation.
Twenty years after China connected its first nuclear reactor to the grid, officials appear confident of the generation III AP1000 reactors (designed by US-based Westinghouse) and the domestically produced generation II-plus CPR-1000reactors underpinning the world's most ambitious nuclear program.
Known as pressurised water reactors, they have passive cooling systems which do not require external power, the problem at the centre of Japan's emergency with its boiling water reactors.
"Some lessons we learn from Japan will be considered in the making of China's nuclear power plans," Environmental Protection Vice-Minister Zhang Lijun said on the sidelines of the National People's Congress over the weekend.
"But China will not change its determination and plan for developing nuclear power."
However, the State Council Research Office warned in January about the number of generation II-plus reactors being built, expressing concern that their lifespan of 60 years might lead to questions about the safety of China's nuclear industry as new technologies were developed over time.
China's 12th five-year plan will add 40 gigawatts of new nuclear power plants between 2011 and 2015, adding to an existing capacity of 10.8 gigawatts produced by 13 power reactors.
The World Nuclear Association estimates China's nuclear generation could rise to at least 80 gigawatts in 2020, 200 gigawatts by 2030 and 400 gigawatts by 2050. It says there are more than 25 power reactors under construction.
China's nuclear power ambitions have been underscored by government-owned CGNPC Uranium Resources' bid for UK-based Kalahari Resources.
Kalahari's project in Namibia is one of the world's largest undeveloped uranium projects. China's uranium imports more than tripled last year to about 17,000 tonnes.
Decarbonising the baseload power system has been given a greater focus by policymakers in many countries. The aim is to lower energy consumption and emissions for every unit of gross domestic product.
The US has committed $US36 billion in loan guarantees to build new nuclear plants. A fifth of US electricity comes from 104 nuclear power plants.
The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is assessing 20 licence applications for new reactors, while the Washington-based Nuclear Industry Institute, the US industry's peak body, expects eight new reactors to be online by the end of the decade.
Leading Democrats have called for an investigation of nuclear plants in areas prone to earthquakes and those using the same technology as the stricken Japanese reactors.
The US nuclear power industry was crippled by the Three Mile Island incident, in which the reactor suffered a cooling problem.
Nuclear industry advocates had painted a rosy outlook for the roll-out of new capacity globally over coming decades.
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