China & US talks, page-15

That is a fairly long but interesting article.

Despite Congress moving in 2022 to ban all Chinese rare earth products in US defence contracts by 2027 (with partial bans up till then to give suppliers time to adjust) progress has been fairly slow because of the complexities involved in economically viable rare earth processing. Now that the Chinese have put export controls of most rare earth concentrates and products to the US due to Trump's tariffs the heat has really been turned up.

There is always a good chance that Trump will bargain his way to a relaxation of China's complete RE ban but it won't be easy because China knows that they have the upper hand. Although he would never admit it Trump will have to make some embarrassing back downs on his tariffs to obtain RE and their products for the USA but there is a self imposed ban on all US military suppliers by 2027 anyway.

The only viable way out of this mess for Trump without a huge amount of egg on his face (making him even more orange than usual) is Lynas with their processing plants in Malaysia, Browns Range and Texas combined with Japan's manufacturing expertise. There are plenty of others working feverishly behind the scenes but most have little chance of large scale production in the near future.

It is estimated that China produced 300 000 Tonnes of RE magnets in 2024 while manufacturers outside China only produced a few hundred Tonnes. If it wasn't for Lynas there would be similar story for refined RE minerals used for numerous products in todays military, automotive, renewable energy and consumer electronic industries too. Even though Lynas still does some final processing in China I expect they would be able to circumnavigate the export controls and Trump tariffs.