Did you look at your article carefully. here is a chart from what you posted Originally in the 2025 plan put out in MAY 2019 all 4 projects were supposr to cost A$500M Kal was ove A%800M and Texas is now 500M and that is only a projection. Lynas keeps having overruns like this and CAP X depreciation could erase much of their profits.
Original Budget vs. Current Cost Projections
Cost Component
2023 Estimate
2025 Projection
Increase
Site Preparation
$45M
$68M
+51%
Water Infrastructure
$120M
$205M
+71%
Radiation Controls
$75M
$142M
+89%
Contingency
$50M
$85M
+70%
Total
$400M
$575M
+44%
Her is current schedule remember 2025 plan said Texas would be done late 2022 and in production. 2023 Now they are saying Q2 2028 with only a 30% probability of making it. 7Qs from first pour to commissioning. I hope they make that but I have my doubts. Look at KAL.
Project Completion Timeline and Milestones
Quarter
Milestone
Progress
Q3 2025
Final EPA permit approval
85% probability
Q1 2026
First concrete poured
60% probability
Q4 2027
Commissioning begins
45% probability
Q2 2028
Commercial production
30% probability
The declining probability metrics reflect increasing uncertainty at each stage, with regulatory approvals and construction challenges posing ongoing risks.
LYC Price at posting:
$9.55 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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