CHINA WILL BE VERY MUCH SHORT IN LITHIUM, page-186

I am now moving my China related posts from ASX Today thread to here. I'd like to keep this issue in the same thread for having all things in one place about Chinese lithium issues.

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The graph below is a recent chart from BMI (Benchmark Mineral Intelligence). Posted on its news post on May 23, 2025. It is estimated that 820kt spod concentrate comes from Zimbabwe (or 96kt LCE), but it's coming from 4-5 mines I guess. The 820kt spod amount is matching the total capacity for planned mines in Zimbabwe which was 1mt.

BMI won't give the LCE (in blue) and spod (in red) numbers as seen on the graph. BMI only gave the percentage amount. Then I calculated the LCE and spod amounts by using the Australian spod production as benchmark for the others. (So the red and blue markings are mine)

The total spod production must be around 5.6mt or 700kt LCE for 2025 according to BMI.

Just keep in mind that the 700kt LCE is only the spodumene concentrate part of the supply side.

The total global supply must be around 1.5mt to match the global demand.

So there must be 800kt production must be coming other resources.

800kt LCE must include;

1. brine production in Chili, (Estimated: 250kt LCE)
2. brine production in Argentina (Estimated: 50kt-60kt LCE)
3. brine production in China (Estimated: 130kt-180 LCE)
4. lepidolite production China (Estimated: 100kt-150 LCE)

According to the estimated amounts (not sure though) the total of the projects above at max case (2nd numbers) comes to 640kt.

There is still an amount of 160kt LCE is missing..!

I think the Chinese is filling that gap by bringing any kind of raw material (from Nigeria, Inner Mongolia, from Afganistan, etc, etc)

I will give you all data slowly over the time in coming days and weeks. I'm working on it. There might be something I haven't considered yet. If you see anything which is not considered please let me know.

Also just keep in mind that no one gives the supply data details. We have to do it ourselves. The instos like UBS, gs, JOM, etc, they only downramp but no data is given.

You can see from this rough calculation that the lithium supply/demand balance is in very tight situation. It is exactly balanced by the Chinese gov. at any cost (loss of course)

Also not al of these mines shown on the graph are producing the marked amounts. It's going to be much less than that at the end of 2025. (Australian projects will reduce their productions I guess)



Mali is still not there for example. Ganfeng just started its operations, Kodal Minerals can't get export permit from Mali gov as of May 15, 2025. They may export (combined) 350kt spod until the end of the year I hope.

But Canada is seriously in danger. I don't think there will be any spod coming out from there anymore.

For example SYA (Sayona); see its March qrt report numbers. Making huge loss.
Ave. selling price AU$1,142 but even FOB cost is AU$1374, not to mention its AISC cost.



I know the producers in Brazil.

There 3 companies in Brasil ;

1. Sigma Lithium
2. AMG Lithium (German)
3. CBL Companhia Brasileire De Litio’s

They produce 350kt spod all together. (Sigma: 270kt, other two: 80kt).

Sigma has the lowest cost in Brazil but it is still higher than LTR's cost. sigma's AISC is US$622/t (for 5.2%) and LTR's AISC is US$580/t.



I will give the data for other resources later on.