FWIW just a month back a reputable source quoted CITI as evidencing the best understanding of the lithium cycle .
Plain English and 20/20 vision
And importantly a record of being correct, and not authored by some anonymous tyrant geezer on a HC thread with a self-confessed one-eyed perspective, whose fuse has shortened as his fear increases
(Recently seen lambasting the AFR for not joining in with a big fluff-driven pump).
Anyway I know that’s a bit nasty, but people shouldn’t dish it out less they are prepared to have it mirrored… and I really am sorry about his poor lost eye.
At the end of thus post there us a link to some useful affurmations on the Louise Hay website that some of his friends might point him towards*
FIRST;
Citi highlights a wave of new capacity coming online from key emerging regions.
Production increases from Mali, Argentina, and Brazil are expected to bring an additional 142kt LCE supply in 2025.
The restart of the Jianxiawo mine in China, contributing another 36kt LCE, has further delayed rebalancing. The restart of this key “swing-production” mine was likely supported by lower operating costs, local subsidies, and reduced energy prices, giving China even more latitude in pricing power.
Swing producers are those operating very near the marginal cost of production. If a swing producer like Jianxiawo can operate even in the present low-price environment, it implies the marginal cost of production in the entire lithium minerals market has shifted lower – a frightening prospect for higher cost producers.
At the same time, China’s push for upstream lithium self-sufficiency continues. According to Citi, China continues to build domestic upstream capabilities while diversifying its lithium resource base through investments in Africa and Latin America.
A potential wild card in this equation is the Manono hard rock project in Africa, which is not yet included in Citi's supply balances. With potential production of 700ktpa of spodumene concentrate 6% (SC6), equivalent to 105kt LCE, its early arrival could deepen market oversupply significantly.
BUT DON’T BELIEVE EVERYTHING YOU READ HEY ?
I don’t have hours and I’m sick of silly reactive stuff so I‘ll just image - for anyone who wants to see - the most updated national view that influences all that stuff like trade and funding and foreign interest etc.. the section on Lithium.
you’ll note it contains forward forecasts relevant to Liontown and provides proper references.
cheers
https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/d...resources-and-energy-quarterly-march-2025.pdf
*I see everything clearly no matter where I look.
I see and I look at my past, present and future with love. I see the good everywhere and in everyone. I love my eyes https://gracemastered.com/louise-hay-affirmations-for-eyesight/#:~:text=Louise Hay's positive affirmations for eyesight&text=I see everything clearly no,I love my eyes.
(20min delay)