China's economy must be facing total collapse???, page-8

  1. 23,958 Posts.
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    IMO your post does not make economic sense
    Perhaps its wishful thinking ..eh?

    -High inflation and high unemployment don't go together
    -western inflation is mostly driven by high energy costs
    -China is buying cheap oil and gas from Russia & Iran (thanks to US economic sanctions on both)
    -Unlike the OECD countries, China has a "Command Economy" where shorter term economic
    variables such as prices are determined by the Government; not by the market
    -Consequently China's inflation rate is 2.5% approx while its post Covid lock down growth rate is 5%

    We can always argue that in principle that Chinese economic data is not kosher because
    of its "command economy" but that said our economic stats are partially managed by
    Government-not free market- eg: subsidised electricity tariffs, gas price cap, etc etc etc.

    Over the past 25 years China has outgrown the OECD by a factor of 3ish and the big
    challenge to the OECD (led by the USA) is can it keep pace with China over the next 25 years.

    Speculation/wishful thinking is fine but the brute economic fundamentals prevail over
    the longer period and over the past 25 years, China has the runs on the board.

    For 2 and a half years, China had a 100% lock down Covid policy.
    That was lifted in Oct 2022 so we'll simply have to wait a year or so
    until the stats are available to really judge China's "post Covid" economic
    trajectory.

    My guess is that it will grow at about 5% P/A to 2030 when it will pass
    out the USA in GDP(nominal) having passed out the USA in GDP (PPP) in 2015.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5384/5384595-529c437779238964b290b36dfd0b3fd3.jpg




    Last edited by moorookamick: 28/06/23
 
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