"..however , if you've ever been to china , away from the major towns, it ain't happening anytime soon ."
That may be the case (on an anecdotal basis), but the urbanisation of China appears to be happening pretty damned fast, if the sources below are to be trusted. When people move into cities & large towns, they will want the same amenities, facilities & comforts as their neighbours, be they Western or Chinese in taste. Electricity is not an optional extra for most people!
Have a read of this to get your head around the scale of growth in energy demand needed to keep this new "Urban Billion" happy:
Preparing For China's Urban Billion
The scale and pace of China's urbanization promises to continue at an unprecedented rate. If current trends hold, China's urban population will expand from 572 million in 2005 to 926 million in 2025 and hit the one billion mark by 2030. In 20 years, China's cities will have added 350 million people, more than the entire population of the United States today. By 2025, China will have 219 cities with more than one million inhabitants compared with 35 in Europe todayand 24 cities with more than five million people.
For companies in China and around the world the scale of China's urbanization promises substantial new markets and investment opportunities. At the same time the expansion of China's cities will represent a huge challenge for local and national leaders. Of the slightly more than 350 million people that China will add to its urban population by 2025, more than 240 million will be migrants. This growth will imply major pressure points for many cities including the challenge of managing these expanding populations, securing sufficient public funding for the provision of social services, and dealing with demand and supply pressures on land, energy, water, and the environment.
pisces: "China is very much still dependent on the whims of its government."
If you read these articles, you will see that consolidated "global city" style urbanisation is current government policy. These cities, are by nature, energy intensive.
"Global City - (1990-Present) Planning aimed to encourage strategic economic development of a region for the purposes of global economic participation as a key node in the globalized market; coined and conceptualized by Saskia Sassen. Global cities are characterized by international familiarity, participation in international events and global affairs, densely populated metropolitan areas, Central Business Districts (CBD) housing key financial, corporate headquarters and national services, extensive public transportation systems, internationally networked airports, large-scale commercial and industrial zones and multiple urban cores. Examples include Beijing (北京), Shanghai (上海), Hong Kong (香港), Guangzhou (Simplified Chinese 广州 Traditional Chinese 廣州) and more recently Shenzhen (深圳市)."
And there are similar things happening in India. So demand for thermal coal has only one way to go, if these seemingly irresistible trends continue.
"By 2008, an estimated 340 million people, or nearly 30 percent of the total population already lived in urban India. Over the next 20 years, urban India is set to become even more important. Cities will create 70 percent of new jobs, and these will prove a powerful magnet. MGI projects that the urban population will increase from 340 million in 2008 to 590 million by 2030."
